AMD - Update - Previous Analysis - Buying Opportunity - AGAIN for NASDAQ:AMD by drchelsea1

0. Notes to Follow;

Comment:

1. So I don't think on Sunday night, with the futures down significantly, it is the time to discuss the 5600XT, or the AMD roadmap, or even earnings at this point. Well earnings, yes.

2. We had outlined a Head and Shoulders Pattern, within a Broader one, weeks ago. If you were following along you would know that I discussed what we call the "$51.50 / $52.50 FANDANGO". This is the phenomenon of correction that we saw from $41.75 to $37.75. A 10 Percent Correction

Comment:

3. This occurred on Thursday and Friday of last week and seemed to correspond to much STRONGER than expected INTC (Intel) Earnings numbers and server (cloud) strength, and a pullback in AMD.

4. CNBC discussed this, and characterized it as "AMD being unfairly punished."

5. We also have the 5600XT botched rollout, where NVDA had a surprise with the 2060 Price Drop:

Comment:

6. This was clearly payback from NVDA from the 5700XT launch:

Jensen Wong has had enough of this.

Comment:

7. We also have INTC attacking on the GPU and Ray Tracing Side, but that is minor:

Comment:

8. So looking at a great buying opportunity here and buy points at:

$49.25
$48.50
$47.50
$46.00
$45.50

9. I don't think even if we open down another 1 percent tomorrow on the broader market, that we could open lower than $47.50.

0. We may be suggesting buying at the open. There is no guarantee that AMD opens down tomorrow, but with earnings on Tuesday January 28th after the close, with AAPL, and a long list of companies as follows:

Comment:

28-Jan Apple Inc.
28-Jan Visa Inc.
28-Jan LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton S.A.
28-Jan Pfizer Inc.
28-Jan SAP SE
28-Jan United Technologies Corp. (UTC)
28-Jan Lockheed Martin Corp.
28-Jan Starbucks Corp.
28-Jan 3M Co.
28-Jan Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd.
28-Jan Stryker Corp.
28-Jan Becton, Dickinson & Co. (BD)
28-Jan Canadian National Railway Co.
28-Jan AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) Inc.
28-Jan HCA Holdings Inc.
28-Jan Harris Corp Registered Shs
28-Jan Atlas Copco AB Registered Shs -B-
28-Jan Atlas Copco AB Registered Shs -A-
28-Jan Philips N.V.
28-Jan Equity Residential
28-Jan Kone Oyj
28-Jan eBay Inc.
28-Jan Paccar Inc.
28-Jan Xilinx Inc.
28-Jan Hormel Foods Corp.
28-Jan McCormick & Co. Inc.
28-Jan Boston Properties Inc.
28-Jan M3 Inc
28-Jan SGS SA
28-Jan Sartorius AG St.
28-Jan Maxim Integrated Products Inc.
28-Jan Sartorius Stedim Biotech
28-Jan Swedbank AB
28-Jan Principal Financial Group Inc.
28-Jan Nucor Corp.
28-Jan OBIC Co LtdShs
28-Jan W. R. Berkley Corp.
28-Jan PulteGroup Inc
28-Jan Autoliv Inc.
28-Jan C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc.
28-Jan Metro Inc.
28-Jan Metro Inc.
28-Jan Reinsurance Group America Inc
28-Jan Hitachi Chemical Co. Ltd.
28-Jan Lear Corp
28-Jan Alaska Air Group Inc.
28-Jan Pentair PLC
28-Jan Xerox Holdings Corporation Registered Shs
28-Jan Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S.
28-Jan Xilinx Inc.
28-Jan Hormel Foods Corp.

Comment:

1. There are 249 Companies reporting on Tuesday this week alone.

Comment:

2. So I think that the Virus has obviously thrown a monkey wrench into a lot:

3. Also we need to put that against the backdrop of INTC earnings, and the bottom of a cycle:

" Intel beat estimates for the fourth quarter and gave an optimistic forecast for the first quarter of 2020.

Business looks more challenging in the back half of the year as cloud customers pull back on their spending.

Analysts are cautious and project big market share gains for AMD."

Comment:

4. So All in All, I am very comfortable OWNING AMD at $47.50 or higher into earnings. Let's see how the futures pan out, and what GOLD and the VIX do here. I don't think that either GOLD or the VIX are good plays at this point.

5. I would bet on:

A. Virus being resolved soon / Contained outside China
B. Earnings Taking us higher
C. The FED Put and cheap money
D. FOMO and the missed rally since October for most
E. AMD $47.50 is the breakout point and strong support.
F. AMD $46, but let's see the morning action before we get carried away.
G. AMD $50+ on Monday and into earnings is possible here, don't count us out yet, there are tons of waiting buyers.

Comment:

H. GOLD pulling back AFTER the VIRUS is over
I. SHORTING THE VXX AFTER THIS VIRUS IS OVER.

Comment:

We also believe that if you rush into Gold and HEDGES next week, you will be LEFT HOLDING the bag.

Let's wait and see.

Remember I had a 11 year old step son, and virus landed in Toronto, and he is terrified yesterday and called crying. So he is a good gauge of investor sentiment. There may be more selling, but this is definitely a buying opportunity.

The DAVOS crowd like my friend Ray Dalio is recommending TECH and GOLD:

Dalio LIKES GOLD and U.S. Tech:

I can't say he has been wrong about GOLD, but I know that is coming to an end. You have to consider the sides in the U.S. / China Tech War

China

1. Low Oil Prices
2. High Gold Prices
3. Low U.S. Equity Prices
4. High Chinese Equity and Foreign Prices

U.S.

1. High Oil Prices (Drone Strikes should help in 2020)
2. Low Gold Prices (Screw up China and there Funding Strategy)
3. High U.S. Equity Prices (U.S. Tech Funding)
4. Low Chinese and Foreign Equity Prices (EU / China Tariffs)

Comment:

Now we are bearish on GOLD. But we currently hold a large MARRIED PUT position on GLD, which is up nicely from $146.00.

We were DELTA NEUTRAL, but GOLD is temporarily heading to $1600+ and the Virus which the U.S. probably unleashed to TANK GOLD, is having the opposite effect in the short term, so we are SCALPING gamma on Gold.

Also, I think the VIX is going back down into a HOLE after the AAPL earnings.

Comment:

So we look to Fed Rate Policy to help out here, and the GAMMA PIN:

Comment:

The U.S. knows they may be beat, so raising CAPITAL and jacking up U.S. Equity Prices would be KEY:

"China will replace the US as the world’s biggest superpower by 2030: UBS survey"

Comment:

This also corresponds nicely to OUR THESIS that we are at the bottom of another 10 year BULL MARKET. The U.S. needs to be, or we are done.

China wins.

Large Stakes here.

"Three rockets hit US Embassy compound in Baghdad, US official says"

SO NOW THE U.S. PROBABLY DID THIS, AND NOW THEY CAN DO A DRONE STRIKE, AND JACK UP THE PRICE OF OIL TO COMBAT THE GOLD SPIKE.

Also, Palladium is crashing NICELY as we predicted, so short that ETF if you dare and can afford the 30% VIG.

Comment:

Also if you were following along, we expected a correction in the INDEXES:

Small Correction May be Incoming Tomorrow

Comment:

You have all the tools and information you need to trade this stock. I will be looking at a hedge or some sort of strategy into January 28th earnings. WE have a massive AMD position.

We currently are holding DELTA 1.25 on PUTS for our position as of Friday around noon. We were incommunicado, so we have to play a little defensive, and we not only collared AMD on Friday, but made a nice gain on that and GLD.

I think we will make a few more days of GLD gains, then reverse.

Also, AAPL and AMD should do well.

We may think about selling covered calls into the earnings report, but we don't want to lose our shares and have our position stolen. Not sure yet.

Will keep you posted.

AMD EARNINGS ARE ALL HANDS ON DECK AROUND HERE, AND WE WILL KEEP YOU UPDATED ON WHAT TO DO, IF YOU ARE INTERESTED.

-drchelsea

Comment:

It also looks like the PALL bubble may burst:

PALL BUBBLE - MAJOR Head and Shoulders Breakdown LOOMING

Comment:

And of course our INTC position really killed it last week:

Comment:

We also brought down the HOUSE with TSLA:

TSLA- Bullish Ascending Triangle- Consolidation - Breakout $600+

Comment:

And for those of you that have been following on DUST, NUGT, and GLD:

GLD - TIME TO SHORT INTO INTC EARNINGS REPORT / VIRUS ALL CLEAR

We are trying to play the $145 to maybe $150 SWING on GLD, before this puppy heads back to $120.

Comment:

You can see the details of how were are scalping GAMMA on GLD, as that is a swing trade up and down as per our analysis.

Comment:

That looks like a nice triple top anyway, and a complete break down to $120. There is no way we can sustain GOLD $1600 Plus, and Ray Dalio may be wrong.

If the GOLD hedge unwinds it will be brutal.

Comment:

Lets wait and see the morning futures and how much panic we actually have at the open.

Nite.

Comment:

Also, Art Hogan, long time bull, is sounding a little bearish, sounds like buying opp right now:

Comment:

So lets see what INTC does on Monday / Tuesday. If INTC holds its gains, I am inclined to believe we take off on Tuesday. Obviously, we will be watching much more than INTC and bulls gone bearish as bull market in full effect indicators. I don't see with the Fed Put and the Long Gamma Pin, how we don't go higher.

Technically we need a 3100 close or lower on the S&P. When I see that I think about going short.

Cheers.

Comment:

So the CHINESE, take a 1 PERCENT GDP HIT from this Virus, and mostly the services sector, and as SOON as this passes, GOLD will CRASH:

"In a note Monday morning, Danske Bank Chief Analyst Allen von Mehren said that the Chinese economy is likely to take a short-term hit and a possible GDP (gross domestic product) reduction of one percentage point in the first half of 2020.

“The SARS epidemic lasted three to four months but it is hard to say if this is any guide. While the government response is faster, the new virus seems to be spreading faster. It is too early to judge when it will get under control,” von Mehren said.

Traditional so-called safe haven assets surged on Monday. Spot gold was trading up by 0.78% at just below $1,582.6 a troy ounce early in the European session, while the Japanese yen changed hands at 109 against the dollar. The Swiss franc was also among the strongest-performing currencies.

Government debt prices also surged, sending bond yields tumbling. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note fell to 1.6218% to hit its lowest since October, while the 30-year Treasury bond yield slid to 2.0825%.

The yield on the German 10-year Bund plummeted to -0.3550% while U.K. 10-year Gilt yields fell to 0.543%, their lowest since October 10."

U.S. Up to it's old tricks on this one.

Comment:

We will be dumping GOLD this week, as soon as everyone realizes this is "China's Problem".

Funny that impeachment happens at the SAME TIME?

Also we get out TECHNICAL CORRECTION, so we can move higher.

We will be buying selected names at the open.