(?) When you look at the Amazon from the USA markets, the popularity of the company, on which regards to consumer satisfaction there is a significant decline in the last two years, that puts the score at the lowest quote of the last two decades. Nothing that at first glance looks like so harmful since the projections of the growth of market share in the USA seems steady despite this decline. But the point is what this means from the business perspective. Satisfaction of the customers are the bedrock of the Amazon since if the customers don't have a great user experience, they change for a better one, and it is simple as that. Even a loyal consumer follows this pattern he tends to try more than a casual one, but when comes to online shoppers the effort to try new experiences is almost none, and there is plenty of them popping in the customers face all the time. So yes, the projections show that the market share looks ready to grow (in the USA at least), but in our opinion, if the Amazon stay on this downtrend of customer satisfaction, this could change drastically overnight.
(??) We look at the external perspective of the company problem, but if we take a closer look, its where things get ugly.
- Workplace conditions: The magical recipe for the Amazon fast delivery and efficiency has a secret ingredient that it's quite unpopular these days "Crush your employees near to a mental and physical breakdown." That's it the common sense from the majority of the employees that spoke out (of course there is some of them that could say differently, depends if the review was paid or not for the company). That's nothing new of course if you search about this topic, the headlines will appear since 2015 until nowadays. But the Kevlar of keeping a culture like that it delivers strong numbers, pretending to befriend of society and hopes that the politicians will turn a blind eye on the matter. But it looks like these days are close to being over, politicians like Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Elizabeth Warren already put Amazon as a target in their political agenda.
- Political matters: Bernie Sanders has been putting continuous pressure into the Amazon by questioning the work environment condition of the company and the actual benefit for the society of an entity that operates like that, only when the Amazon raised the minimum wage to $15/hour, that the politician has praised the attitude. But nothing changed in the long term, the senator still pushing the famous "Stop Bezos" bill, and has raised the tone against the company. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was the protagonist of the New Deal, where the Amazon tried to build the second headquarters, but even with 70% of population approval and $3 Billion in incentives offered by the state. The company faced a significant clash against lawmakers and activists, that pointed out the issues of the company and how spoiled and immature it was acting. Since the company hasn't negotiated viable term to work with the community, basically showing the real face of the company, to avoid more exposure in the matter and try to create some pressure in the government, Bezos walked away from the business.
Elizabeth Warren candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination has made breaking up large tech companies a hot topic, aiming to slow down the monopolization of the market share of these companies, she could be a significant threat for Amazon Business in 2020.
- Competition: The Asian players of e-commerce has shown strong numbers and fantastic growth. They could become sooner than expected a significant threat to Amazon since they don't have to pretend to care about work and political standards of the West.
We must keep in mind that all that glitters is not gold if still believing that Jeff Bezos is an American oligarch that must be appraised for his accomplishments and his bigs charity donations, or you don't have a morality problem with the Amazon method. Put some thought into the long term viability of the scale of this sort of questions, and judges if it's feasible to believe in some significant growth from this point, in this conjecture.
Thanks for reading, and have nice trades.