BradMatheny

AMAZON Fun - Predictive Modeling Example

NASDAQ:AMZN   Amazon.com
I thought it would be fun to post something to illustrate how my predictive modeling systems can help to identify and predict future price swings/sizes and opportunities. This AMZN chart shows predictive modeling targets and dates going out about 30 days. This model was generated by one of my most advanced modeling tools. It maps the technical and price DNA of the markets and learns from these DNA markers. The resulting analysis is that I can ask it to identify key future price points at any point in time and can derive future price objectives going forward by 15 to 20+ price bars (days, weeks, months or quarters).

Below, I have included the final analysis of this AMZN trigger. The trigger bar originated on 9/10/2018. Therefore, these forward predictive levels originated over 90 days ago and continue out till the end of Jan 2019. Near the bottom of this data, you'll see the UPPER and LOWER normalized price ranges shown as +5, +10, +15 & +20 bars into the future. Above that, you'll see the PRICE PROP level which is the Probability factor for positive or negative price targets.

Lets see how this plays out over the next 30+ days to see how accurate these triggers really are. Have run. It looks like Amazon will move up nearly $200, then stall and fall about $100, then move about $150~200 higher again before the end of Jan 2019.

Neg Price Prop : 90.62515460246442
Neg Price Prop : 84.5705147861916
Neg Price Prop : 97.07041364310149
Neg Price Prop : 93.9460097128451
Neg Price Prop : 87.79388061236992
Neg Price Prop : 93.89682106419978
Neg Price Prop : 96.94852974148039
Neg Price Prop : 96.94861319029661
Neg Price Prop : 96.94856550493233
Neg Price Prop : 93.82355357818253
Neg Price Prop : 87.57357742583845
Neg Price Prop : 87.57357742002347
Neg Price Prop : 75.07352974211128
Neg Price Prop : 75.0491156795999
Neg Price Prop : 75.00028754891565
Neg Price Prop : 75.00028754907481
Neg Price Prop : 50.26884144531407
Pos Price Prop : 74.33898388053338
Neg Price Prop : 50.6396312833286
Neutral Price Prop : 0 0
9/10 0:0 Found Record = 277.94 350.70 350.70 423.50 || -285.09 -550.19 -550.19 -550.19
9/10 0:0 ------ = 103.71 108.56 108.91 109.37 || -221.89 -441.59 -499.83 -511.13
9/10 0:0 ------ = 19.46 17.52

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