OrigamiOracle
Short

Amazon - The Tech Bubble

NASDAQ:AMZN   AMAZON COM INC
The tech bubble is about to burst as we crest the zenith of the long term debt cycle and begin a deleveraging. This video gives a good summary of the debt cycle: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAI...

Amazon is a textbook example of a hyperwave, and is now approaching the end of the fourth and final impulsive phase. Almost all hyperwaves result in a collapse of price back to the initial breakout level, which means that Amazon is about to crash to around $100. Many tech companies ( google , Netflix ) are following a similar pattern. This over performance is representative of a market at the peak of the long term debt cycle and heading towards a depression.

As the bubble bursts, things go from boom to bust. Interest rates, asset prices and purchasing power all drop . Usually, the resulting depression resolves the situation and the debt cycle begins again. However this is the first deleveraging to occur alongside the mass adoption of cryptocurrency- a deflationary alternative to inflationary fiat currency.

In this situation, it is very possible that phases 5, 6, and 7 of the stock market hyper wave will occur during phases 3 and 4 of a cryptocurrency hyperwave. This could be the case if the majority of the market decides to exit fiat currency (which will be losing purchasing power) in exchange for cryptocurrency (which will maintain or gain purchasing power due to its scarcity).

The hyperwave pattern is very rare, but unmistakable and predictable. It occurs during times of large market changes when the economy is undergoing a significant paradigm shift.

The wave begins with a specific and significant pattern (Figure 1). The long term price ceiling is broken (a), then price returns to test support (b), support is proven strong and the resulting linear trend remains unbroken by a weekly closing candle (c).

Volume was highest at the beginning of phase 2 (highlighted in Figure 1), where the point of control was found at $100. This initial explosion in price set the rest of the wave into motion. The support lines held price apart from one weekly breakdown and recovery during phase 3

We are now in the final moments of phase 4. Summer has ended, Winter is coming.

Hyper waves are very consistent in their formation. One of the most predictable aspects is the correction. During stage 7, the price returns all the way down to the phase 1 price ceiling. This presents an opportunity to short the market to $100, with a potential volatility trade in phase 6. It also suggests that a similar waveform may soon occur elsewhere in the economy.

A Fibonacci extension suggests the top is around $1800-$2000, but the duration and height of phase four is difficult to predict. It is only clear that we are in the final stage of the ascent, and are about to begin the correction.
This was an awesome call. I’ve been following the tech space for the last couple of years and your analysis is spot on. Winter is here and you saw it coming.

Shout out to Tyler Jenks for all his work developing Hyperwave. His hard work has funded (and protected) my retirement.
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Hello, noob here. I thought hyperwaves are to be tracked using weekly candles, phase 4 ends when the weekly candle closes beneath phase 4 line. If this is correct will it change your predictions?
Thank you.
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Hi @TML, Sorry for the extremely slow response. Yes, hyperwaves do rely on weekly candle closing prices, I only used monthly candles here so that tradingview would display the full duration of the corrective phase.The actual analysis of price action was done on a weekly closing basis.
We have now clearly broken phase 4 and are in phase 5. I am not so confident in the duration and exact structure of the corrective phase in this prediction, but the overall pattern of 5,6,7 and the return to baseline (100) are extremely probable.
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Great post, thanks! I don't know if I can agree with you as to the severity of the imminent pullback, but at $2,000 psychological this thing is absolutely going to go belly up and take the rest of the market with it, to whatever extent.
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awesome
+1 Reply
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