Hello everyone, I am going to keep this short and sweet because my last posts have kept getting banned. I apologize for my absence, but I am hopefully going to be posting more often now.
Elliott wave analysis: It looks like we have just started our wave 5 of a greater decline, maybe some sort of wave C? I am not sure, I have not look at the larger structure too much. But for now, let's work with the trade opportunity available to us. The reason why I think that we have started the wave 5, is because we have just finished an a.b.c wave 4, that ends around the end of the wave b in the wave 3, which is a really strong support in harmonic elliott wave theory, that shows this is infact a wave 4. The target is the 2.618 of the wave 1 and the 0.618 of the wave 1-3-4, which is around the same place.
Depending on your risk tolerance, the stop loss can be the prior swing high/ end of wave 4, or the most recent high. I am stopping at the most recent high, because I am not planning on risking too much on this trade.
Moving average analysis: The 200 ema rejection on the 15 minute is giving me HUGE bearish vibes. Not only does it reinforce the fact that wave 4 has ended, it also tells us that there is a lot of bearish momentum still. In addition to this, on the one hour, we have seen that the 55ema has crossed over the 200ema which is an incredibly bearish sign.
RSI analysis: On smaller timeframes such as the 15, 30 and 40 minute, we can see that we have rebounded off of a strong rsi support and are headed back downwards. I have drawn on the rsi, what I think the move will look like. I suspect that we will see a rebound from the oversold zone, that will indicate the end of the wave 5 with strong bullish divergence. On smaller timeframes such as the 2 hour and the one hour, we can see that we have seem lower highs and are trending back downwards again.
Macd analysis: The macd worries me quite a bit. On the 1 hour, we can see that we have a cross on the negative side, which is not something we want to see when we are headed lower, but on a smaller time frame, for example the 30 minute, we can see that the Macd has rebounded off of the zero line and we see bearishly diverging rsi. This hints to me that we will be seeing lower price action and perhaps a cross on the macd of a higher timeframe.
All in all, we are headed downwards.
The target is the 2.414-2.618 area, and the stop loss is either the end of wave 4, or the previous high.
Elliott wave analysis: It looks like we have just started our wave 5 of a greater decline, maybe some sort of wave C? I am not sure, I have not look at the larger structure too much. But for now, let's work with the trade opportunity available to us. The reason why I think that we have started the wave 5, is because we have just finished an a.b.c wave 4, that ends around the end of the wave b in the wave 3, which is a really strong support in harmonic elliott wave theory, that shows this is infact a wave 4. The target is the 2.618 of the wave 1 and the 0.618 of the wave 1-3-4, which is around the same place.
Depending on your risk tolerance, the stop loss can be the prior swing high/ end of wave 4, or the most recent high. I am stopping at the most recent high, because I am not planning on risking too much on this trade.
Moving average analysis: The 200 ema rejection on the 15 minute is giving me HUGE bearish vibes. Not only does it reinforce the fact that wave 4 has ended, it also tells us that there is a lot of bearish momentum still. In addition to this, on the one hour, we have seen that the 55ema has crossed over the 200ema which is an incredibly bearish sign.
RSI analysis: On smaller timeframes such as the 15, 30 and 40 minute, we can see that we have rebounded off of a strong rsi support and are headed back downwards. I have drawn on the rsi, what I think the move will look like. I suspect that we will see a rebound from the oversold zone, that will indicate the end of the wave 5 with strong bullish divergence. On smaller timeframes such as the 2 hour and the one hour, we can see that we have seem lower highs and are trending back downwards again.
Macd analysis: The macd worries me quite a bit. On the 1 hour, we can see that we have a cross on the negative side, which is not something we want to see when we are headed lower, but on a smaller time frame, for example the 30 minute, we can see that the Macd has rebounded off of the zero line and we see bearishly diverging rsi. This hints to me that we will be seeing lower price action and perhaps a cross on the macd of a higher timeframe.
All in all, we are headed downwards.
The target is the 2.414-2.618 area, and the stop loss is either the end of wave 4, or the previous high.