AUD NZD - Buying potential, awaiting further moves

G'day traders and welcome to 2023 for a new position trade which is in the works.

Breakdown:
1. Note
2. Contents
3. Research breakdown
4. Education recap
5. Information on Lupa.

A note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon a long term trading strategy looking for Fresh Demand/Supply zones.
This is tagged Long due to the overall monthly demand in control, until the opportunity of a rejection of the PCP has occurred or a long opportunity from a break and retest of the trend. Overall, where an imbalance is formed and sellers have completed the changing of hands due to purchasing further increments the exhaustive sellers. Until this criteria is met - no trade is taken until reactive, break or curve is confirmed. This is an active trade, now traders can use this for looking at new zones to purchase from.

Monthly timeframe

• The monthly shows a strong test of the structure back in 2013 - where price has tested the September 2013 monthly candle 'close'.
  
• Since this structure high, price has had a strong sell off with a large engulfing sell. Review below for the breakdown from the Fresh nested supply towards the demand zone.
  

Monthly updated
The monthly FL demand has been activated upon the fresh level.

Weekly Timeframe

Weekly Updated

• November 15 and 21st were the key weeks here for the imbalance formation. This departure zone has aligned with the wick formation and will be netted out (at some point). This point has now arrived and price has created a weekly candle which had given the false flag for a final selling push on the weekly. The subsequent week had offered strong buying power with a three day confirmation of the demand FL taking a reactive control. The monthly TL had 'created a bear trap' which the final profit taking has now converted into a new buying imbalance.
  

Four Day in conjunction with Fibonacci extension (sells in play, awaiting buys)

• The four day has shown the similar zone which aligns nicely with the weekly.
  Note- here that price has provided a clear sell off which has broken through and on the daily provided a break and retest. This would be the moment for a secondary sell could be placed with a confirmation on the lower timeframe(s).
  Again structure provides a retest of the previous 'resistance' zone which aligns nicely with the End of August zone.
  

Daily Chart

• Awaiting the reactive tap and then a further confirmation using the 8 hour or daily if preferred.
  
• Price may not reach the desired Daily, three day cross imbalance zone.
  
• Upon a confirm - if price fails to provide engulfing moves - then expect a final push to complete the structure pattern within the arrival imbalance.
  From here, price will need to test the curve and break the high curve allowing long term trades to take place.
  

Updated -
After waiting for the monthly TL to be crossed - price has now offered a strong rejection level.
Price has created a fresh demand level and even stronger engulfing candle which departed using the strategy eclipsing the previous candle closes - allowing a fresh pivot to be formed in line with structure left and the TL break and retest.


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• Professional analyst with 6+ years experience in the capital markets
  
• Focus on technical output not fundamentals
  
• Focus on investing for long term positional moves
  
• Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
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Thanks,
LVPA MMXXIII