AUDUSD Is About To Drop!

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
The monthly price is in a bearish reversal candle pattern formation that is bouncing off the huge bearish head and shoulder patterns neckline, ascending trend line of the symmetrical triangle, and bearish crossed short term moving averages, giving us a signal that I call an H&S B-E.1. Usually, when this signal pops-up, a 2 level drop occurs that will end in any previous key level target. In this situation, the trend might end on the 2nd Monthly Key Lvl.

Although the bearish signal seems to be strong, it might not occur. The price will reject it once it has bounced off the 7th Monthly Key Lvl to bullish breaking and retesting the Monthly H&S/Half a Bat Neckline, ascending trend line, together with the 8 (dark blue) moving average. If the price does that we will be expecting a bullish uptrend to the Monthly Neckline 2, descending trend line, 21 and 50 (red and light blue) moving averages.

Moving down to the weekly, we also have 2 possible scenarios that will confirm and dis-confirm the weekly and monthly biases.

Bulls: -If the weekly price bullish breaks and closes above the Mini Weekly H&S Neckline and 8 moving average, that will dis-confirm both trades and the price will be in preparation to rally to the Monthly H&S Neckline, ascending trend line, and 21 moving average to dis-confirm the monthly's bias also. So the weekly's dis-confirm will likely lead to the monthly's one.

Bears: -If the price bearish closes and retests the Mini Weekly H&S Neckline on the daily time frame (see the chart below) that will trigger the 1st trade signal. If the price drops to bearish break and retest the 8th Monthly Key Lvl after the 1st trade signal, that will trigger our 2nd trade signal. Both of these trades will fully confirm weekly and monthly's bias of the long-term drop.

As I stated above, the first trade will be confirmed on the daily; lets see how that will happen:

The weekly's bearish head and shoulder pattern is fully visible here on the daily as a big pattern. Its price is current running below the neckline that hasn't been retested since it broke it. This makes the patterns signal not fully valid. Furthermore, we the bearish crossed short-term moving averages that don't retests made on them. This makes both the moving averages and market maker pattern signal not fully confirmed. With that said, if the price closes below the signal key levels and proceeds to bullish bounce off or retest the Mini Weekly H&S Neckline together with the short-term moving averages with a bearish reversal candle pattern close (made by the accumulation phase), that will fully confirm the daily, weekly, and monthly signals.

That's it for today. I hope you found value in this trade idea. If you have a different concept in mind, feel free to share it in the comments section or through a direct message (your choice), I'd love to know your thoughts!

Stay Blessed,


The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.