AUDUSD Despite the rebound still bearish unless this level break

The AUDUSD pair has been trading within a long-term Channel Down since the February 25 2021 High. The recent rebound is fueled by the direct hit on the Channel's Lower Lows (bottom) trend-line and the gap that filled from June 2020. So far the pattern resembles the Channel Down of 2018/19. Both had a fake break above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which eventually rejected the price.

The current RSI sequence is similar to that of the last rebound in early March 2020, which after failing to break above the 0.5 Fibonacci level, it resulted into a massive collapse, which of course was attributed almost entirely to the COVID outbreak.

Unless a similar event takes place, we can expect a smoother price action this time but still, a break below the Channel should aim at the next Gap Fill around the 0.6400 level. It would be safer to buy only if the price breaks above the 1D MA200 again.



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