JackLesko

AUDUSD - Potential Short on the 4H

Short
FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
In this chart we can see that the AUDUSD is in a key area sitting directly below weekly resistance (check the weekly chart for more clarity on this). Judging by the move made on the DXY last week, we can see that the weekly candle on the DXY closed level in line with a support area . Because of this, I believe that we may see a temporary relief in the sell off of the USD and therefore a drop in other pairs - like the AUDUSD . This short is only for the near term as long term I am personally still bullish on this pair.

As the weekly candle closed below the weekly resistance level on this chart, I would like to see a short position take us to 0.65 as a first target, and 0.64 as an extended target. Buying volume has been decreasing over the last week on this pair with higher spikes in selling volume . My overall opinion is the likelihood of this pair seeing a short term relief to its recent incredible bull run is high. I will be looking for shorts around the 0.665-0.67 area with targets around the 0.65/0.64 ranges.

Good luck.
Comment: DXY daily chart for reference:

Comment: AUDUSD daily chart for reference:

Order cancelled: This setup has now unfortunately been invalidated. No possible entries for this setup came to fruition. On to the next one!

Comments

Hi, any reasons how you drew your ABC pattern? Is this waves analysis? It is close to resistant, is there any chance Aussie break the resistant rather than rebound to support? Thank you.
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JackLesko QGuo-Shane
@QGuo-Shane, Hi! I don't actually use Elliot wave theory/wave analysis, this is merely a tool that I use to separate patterns/clarify direction within the structure without drawing too many lines on my charts. That being said, one could argue that this is actually an ABCD formation within the structure also correlating to a bearish sentiment. I'm no expert on Elliot wave theory or wave analysis, but its something that I've always wanted to learn but the problem is everyone counts waves differently.
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QGuo-Shane JackLesko
@JackLesko, thanks buddy! good luck
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JackLesko QGuo-Shane
@QGuo-Shane, No worries! good luck to you too!
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great
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Explanation
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Nice setup, i might look at taking this myself depending on how markets open.
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JackLesko Aimee_Apex
@Aimee_Apex, Definitely! I imagine we could see some stop hunting around this level so the placement of ones SL is vital for this setup.
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A lot of people wanna go long on this one, I'm short from the top of it till the drop of it ! Love your analysis and hope you're right about it ! How can we talk privately ?
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JackLesko iamkvin
@iamkvin, Me too! Only time will tell, but as it stands my bias is certainly towards the downside. I'm actually thinking about opening up a Discord channel for like minded traders such as yourself to review ideas and discuss general market activity. If this is something that yourself and other people would like, then I'm more than happy to get one created?
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