1. Singles day is in November, and if Prime Day from NYSE:AMZN was any indication, this will once again be a massive boost to sales for NYSE:BABA . The resulting news of sales numbers on singles day should give a good bump up.
2. The US election debates; yes I am going to go there. You can bet that the Democrats will come out in full force stating that the China tariffs are a terrible idea (there is no way they would agree with anything Trump implemented!) I am making the assumption that the following will likely happen: The democrats denounce the tariffs, and say that they will abolish them if elected, next - news will spread that the democrats have a shot at taking the presidency from Trump (whether you believe it or not, there WILL be a time period where this message gets pushed by media), in the wake of a sentiment that Chinese tariffs will be lifted, these Chinese stocks will get another good run up.
I think the key exit point for this trade is BEFORE the actual election. If Trump wins a second term, then any run up prior to the election based on a possible Democratic presidency will likely get washed right out. The other "Win" to this trade is that, if Trump manages to come to an agreement with China prior to the elections, which may be a wise move on his part to get the votes of the rural American farmers taking a beating from these tariffs, then that is still likely to give the Chinese stocks a good bump up!
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