lauralea

Pull Back Fishing Weekly Chart

NYSE:BABA   Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd.
I have been checking this one off and on for quite a while. I could not figure out why it just goes down and down and down despite some significant up volume days recently. BABA may have breeched another support level today. This is not a great day for China stocks and I know the talking heads have been giving China stocks the cold shoulder, but I am just wondering how low BABA will go? I had been looking on daily and decided to attempt to decipher this beast on weekly.

Short interest is relatively low considering and under 2%. I see an almost classic head and shoulders pattern and it is a tall structure, so the white line down the middle coming from the top of the head and through the neckline, is a ballpark guesstimate of where that pattern may fall to the downside. It may not make it that far if sentiment towards China perks up, or it can go further and become an extension of that measurement.

Price broke up from what appears to be a bull shark after forming a W pattern (I did not measure the W as it no longer matters, but also looks to have been a double bottom) BABA then surpassed targets for the shark pattern and the double bottom, formed a head and shoulders top, broke the neckline and has been in a volatile downtrend ever since. Now BABA is paying it's dues to the shark I suppose. (o:

W's can represent several bearish harmonic pattern, but if you get out on that last leg up of the W in time, it is not really bearish. So I am not sure why they are referred to as bearish, but they are, and if you stay too long, it will bite you if you are long. Many would go short at the peak of the last leg up of the W. M's are associated most often with what is called bullish harmonic patterns and the idea is to go long at the landing pad of the last leg down.

I do want to catch this one when it finally chills out. It is amazing sometimes how agonizingly long it takes sometimes to get to a bottom in comparison with how fast a security can get to the top. Patience can be a virtue. I looked at BABA today and thought it is getting dirt cheap. Then I try to remember that even dirt can get cheaper (o:

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