Drew this a while ago, never reached my target. Using this as a proxy for financials because quite frankly I am lazy.
Would not touch any financials until this hits low 800s. Tightening yield spreads are awful for banks, because banks lend money on the long end of the yield curve and borrow on the short end of the curve. The Fed was smart about the reverse repo rates and mentioning rate hikes, as it forced the long end of the yield curve to flatten since people sell off short term treasuries. The dot plot showed overnight federal funds rates rising to 60 bps. That is much higher than the current 21 bps of the 2-year bill. From Investopedia, one reason the yield curve may flatten is market participants may be expecting inflation to decrease or the Federal Reserve to raise the federal funds rate in the near term.
It is kind of funny, the banks drove their own parabolic rise by crowding the bond trade and pushing the inflation narrative. Now Daddy Fed is wringing their arms and forcing them down the yield curve, causing their own downfall.
The rotation from value / financials to growth / tech remains strong in my opinion, as the inflation trade was way overdone. 10Y went from < 100 bps to 170 bps in the span of 3 months. That is a metric crap ton of bond selling. Seriously, the US bond market is an ocean of liquidity. People are correcting themselves now. ARKK has a nice uptrend and was green on quad witching.
DO NOT all in growth tech til after Tuesday, as JPOW is speaking, and people get scared any time he clears his throat. Take a lozenge my friend.
Would not touch any financials until this hits low 800s. Tightening yield spreads are awful for banks, because banks lend money on the long end of the yield curve and borrow on the short end of the curve. The Fed was smart about the reverse repo rates and mentioning rate hikes, as it forced the long end of the yield curve to flatten since people sell off short term treasuries. The dot plot showed overnight federal funds rates rising to 60 bps. That is much higher than the current 21 bps of the 2-year bill. From Investopedia, one reason the yield curve may flatten is market participants may be expecting inflation to decrease or the Federal Reserve to raise the federal funds rate in the near term.
It is kind of funny, the banks drove their own parabolic rise by crowding the bond trade and pushing the inflation narrative. Now Daddy Fed is wringing their arms and forcing them down the yield curve, causing their own downfall.
The rotation from value / financials to growth / tech remains strong in my opinion, as the inflation trade was way overdone. 10Y went from < 100 bps to 170 bps in the span of 3 months. That is a metric crap ton of bond selling. Seriously, the US bond market is an ocean of liquidity. People are correcting themselves now. ARKK has a nice uptrend and was green on quad witching.
DO NOT all in growth tech til after Tuesday, as JPOW is speaking, and people get scared any time he clears his throat. Take a lozenge my friend.