FieryTrading

🔥 Bitcoin And The 50-Week SMA

BNC:BLX   BraveNewCoin Liquid Index for Bitcoin
Lately I've been making a couple of long-term analyses on Bitcoin and the current state of the market. For today, I'd like to zoom in on the relationship between the BTC and the 50-week SMA .

Apart from the fact that the SMA is a great indicator for general bullishness (or bearishness) in the market, it plays a vital role in the ending days of a bull-market.


In the screenshot above you can see the 50-week SMA functioned as a strong support after the 2014 top had been reached. BTC saw an +80% increase in price after hitting the SMA .


A similar thing occurred after the 2017 top. After BTC hit the 50-week SMA we saw a strong bullish move of around +50%.

Not saying that history will repeat itself again, but I think the 50-week SMA offers a nice perspective nevertheless.

As you might see on the current chart of BTC , we've already hit the SMA once before. Furthermore, we're currently trading at the SMA itself. So, in case that the SMA will hold, we might see a ~50% upwards move in the coming weeks, bringing BTC back to around $43k.

On the other hand, if this week's price will close below the 50-week SMA we should be prepared for a further fall, potentially even hitting 25k in the near future.

Happy trading!
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Comments

You don't take the death cross into account?
+1 Reply
FieryTrading UnknownUnicorn22140487
@UnknownUnicorn22140487, I do, but the death cross does not imply that the low is yet to come, take a look at the March 2020 capitulation for example. Furthermore, I think that the bullish cycle is not over yet. See below:
Reply
JuiceBoX11X FieryTrading
@FieryTrading, March 2020 is a deviation due to the Covid shutdown. Its hardly a viable reference point.
Reply
Quality content, thanks for sharing. 🔥🔥
Reply
Good job. Thanks for sharing
Reply
thanks for the analysis. good job.
Reply
so interesting 👍
Reply