I've done this before. I'm doing it again. Let's say you noticed Bitcoin had gone through the 2014 bear market from $1180 down to $340 by the end of Dec 2014. You decide based on the Mayer Multiple (BTC's price divided by its 200 dma) that 0.77 is low enough to buy and DCA. Your plan is to buy $1000 worth of BTC at the end of each month and continue buying BTC until it reaches its ATH again at $1200. Once it surpasses $1200 you will hold until the Mayer Multiple reaches 2.40. When it does you will sell your BTC position. How would you have done?
You would have bought $28000 worth of BTC at a $391 DCA through March 2017. In April 2017 the BTC price exceeded $1200 so you hold. You continue to hold until the Mayer Multiple exceeds 2.40 in Dec 2017. You sell at the end of Dec 2017 at $13863 per BTC your 71.585 BTC position for $977,497 after exchange fees. You make 34.91 fold or 3391% on your $28000 investment.
After watching another bear market in 2018 from near $20000 to $3725 at the end of 2018, you notice the Mayer Multiple is now 0.63 and this is a good time to start buying BTC again. Now you have more capital and decide to buy $10000 worth of BTC at the end of each month and continue until BTC reaches its ATH again. So far through the end of March 2020, your $160,000 investment has bought 25.476 BTC for a DCA of $6280. The Mayer Multiple did get to 1.96 in July 2019 but still was below the 2.40 level to sell and the BTC price was still below its $20000 ATH. You continue to buy BTC in this manner until $20000 is exceeded. You will then hold until the Mayer Multiple reaches 2.40. You will also have other metrics in order to time your sell in tranches.
This is IMO a good way to go about buying and selling BTC for the long term. It is a long term investment. Most of the gains are obtained in the last few months of each bull cycle. The key is recognizing when BTC is oversold long term and then selling it in tranches until you have sold most if not all of your position. Then wait for another bear cycle to conclude and repeat the process again.
You would have bought $28000 worth of BTC at a $391 DCA through March 2017. In April 2017 the BTC price exceeded $1200 so you hold. You continue to hold until the Mayer Multiple exceeds 2.40 in Dec 2017. You sell at the end of Dec 2017 at $13863 per BTC your 71.585 BTC position for $977,497 after exchange fees. You make 34.91 fold or 3391% on your $28000 investment.
After watching another bear market in 2018 from near $20000 to $3725 at the end of 2018, you notice the Mayer Multiple is now 0.63 and this is a good time to start buying BTC again. Now you have more capital and decide to buy $10000 worth of BTC at the end of each month and continue until BTC reaches its ATH again. So far through the end of March 2020, your $160,000 investment has bought 25.476 BTC for a DCA of $6280. The Mayer Multiple did get to 1.96 in July 2019 but still was below the 2.40 level to sell and the BTC price was still below its $20000 ATH. You continue to buy BTC in this manner until $20000 is exceeded. You will then hold until the Mayer Multiple reaches 2.40. You will also have other metrics in order to time your sell in tranches.
This is IMO a good way to go about buying and selling BTC for the long term. It is a long term investment. Most of the gains are obtained in the last few months of each bull cycle. The key is recognizing when BTC is oversold long term and then selling it in tranches until you have sold most if not all of your position. Then wait for another bear cycle to conclude and repeat the process again.