BTC: The True Bitcoin Bottom is months away - here's why!
These days, everyone seems to be freaking out and yelling "breakout!" just because there has been a spike on the BTC chart recently, which will soon be ironed out again. I don't mind. ;-)
Let me tell you what I currently expect:
The True Bottom will be when red has crossed green.
No earlier.
Well, as you can see, both red and green are still going down *steeply*.
Even the recent $5.1k spike can not change that.
Next, the price will return back below the red line ($3.7k).
The True Bottom is still far away. I have sketched out two possibilities that appear likely to me today.
Take care!
Let me tell you what I currently expect:
The True Bottom will be when red has crossed green.
No earlier.
Well, as you can see, both red and green are still going down *steeply*.
Even the recent $5.1k spike can not change that.
Next, the price will return back below the red line ($3.7k).
The True Bottom is still far away. I have sketched out two possibilities that appear likely to me today.
Take care!
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Update 10-Apr-2019: The Bitcoin walks on a thin 150MA rope on the 30min chart.
If it falls below $5,200 towards $5,100, it will start crashing very soon.
In order to continue, it has to constantly move on up.
But obviously the volume and the price development are flattening,
I do not believe that it can go on like this for a long time.
If it falls below $5,200 towards $5,100, it will start crashing very soon.
In order to continue, it has to constantly move on up.
But obviously the volume and the price development are flattening,
I do not believe that it can go on like this for a long time.
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In other words, whales have left the waters at $5.3k. They are stuffed for the time being. Now it's your turn, Average Joe. Buckle up. (just a theory of mine)
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You can't cheat gravity or skip time, right?
Likewise, the market will work its course without taking the shortcut wishes of individuals (wishful thinking) into consideration.
It won't skip anything for the sake of some people's wishful thinking, like "the bottom is already in". Make no mistake.
To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven:
A time to get, and a time to lose. A time to keep, and a time to cast away.
A time to cast away stones, and a time to gather stones together.
What I make of it:
Now it's a time to cast away stones, not a time to gather stones together.
Likewise, the market will work its course without taking the shortcut wishes of individuals (wishful thinking) into consideration.
It won't skip anything for the sake of some people's wishful thinking, like "the bottom is already in". Make no mistake.
To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven:
A time to get, and a time to lose. A time to keep, and a time to cast away.
A time to cast away stones, and a time to gather stones together.
What I make of it:
Now it's a time to cast away stones, not a time to gather stones together.
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Update(7-May-2019): To reiterate briefly: I believe the true bottom will be reached when red MA has crossed green MA. Not earlier. As in July 2015, the situation today is that the price has risen above the green line. The main difference to 2015, however, is that red and green are not yet flattened (they are quite steep) and still far apart from each other. Since the daily RSI is deep in the overbought territory, the Bitcoin price will fall below the two curves next (as in 2015). However, given the greater distance between red and green, it will take some time for the price to settle and the curves to flatten. That's why I believe we have plenty of time to reach the "true bottom". Until then, many things can happen. I would not be surprised if Bitcoin makes a new low in the coming months. It is just my current view. Of course I could be wrong. We will see. Good luck for all.
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It is worthwhile to check the shape and inclination of the wave combs:
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A major keystone is approaching: MA140 is about to cross MA230.
It is difficult to say with certainty what will happen, no one can see the future.
Pure logically, at least that's the way it's been in the past, and not only with Bitcoin, that after MA140 and MA230 intersect, the price usually pulls back to MA140 for a re-test. Now look how high the BTC price is over MA140 and how high the daily RSI is, way overbought. I am not suggesting anything, just observing and thinking. Use your own your mind to decide and draw your own conclusions. Good luck!
It is difficult to say with certainty what will happen, no one can see the future.
Pure logically, at least that's the way it's been in the past, and not only with Bitcoin, that after MA140 and MA230 intersect, the price usually pulls back to MA140 for a re-test. Now look how high the BTC price is over MA140 and how high the daily RSI is, way overbought. I am not suggesting anything, just observing and thinking. Use your own your mind to decide and draw your own conclusions. Good luck!
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Update 08-Jun-2019: My current mid-term view:
I think a pullback to the daily MA150 (~$5.7k) for a re-test of support is highly likely then we will have too see.
If the daily MA150 support breaks then we're in for an A-B-C correction and will go lower.
If the daily MA150 holds, though, the uptrend will likely resume.
I think a pullback to the daily MA150 (~$5.7k) for a re-test of support is highly likely then we will have too see.
If the daily MA150 support breaks then we're in for an A-B-C correction and will go lower.
If the daily MA150 holds, though, the uptrend will likely resume.
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It remains exciting. BTC flees to the top, but is there still plenty of room?
I say it's the daily MA38 (which may look like a parabola) that is crucial. It is the border line between doom and glory.
If BTC falls below it it's damned, but if it manages to stay above it's spared.
Just how much longer can this chase go on? I feel like the decision is closing in ;-)
I say it's the daily MA38 (which may look like a parabola) that is crucial. It is the border line between doom and glory.
If BTC falls below it it's damned, but if it manages to stay above it's spared.
Just how much longer can this chase go on? I feel like the decision is closing in ;-)
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This beast just keeps on running, that's right. ;-) Nevermind, I am totally relaxed, still. And I don't even think about getting in now. Jumping on the Bitcoin bandwagon and buying it now is what unsuspecting beginners do.
If one thing is for sure, it's the fact is that there will be a time when the price will retrace down to the red line for a re-test to make sure the support is still working.
It has always done this in the past (see yelow circles). It will do it again. The question is not if, but when.
Then, when the red line still works as support and it starts going up again, there's a good time to get in, in my opinion.
Numbers signify nothing, it could be at $6k it could be at $9k or it could be at $12, the exact number is not important. Understanding what your plan is and sticking to it is important. YMMV ;-)
If one thing is for sure, it's the fact is that there will be a time when the price will retrace down to the red line for a re-test to make sure the support is still working.
It has always done this in the past (see yelow circles). It will do it again. The question is not if, but when.
Then, when the red line still works as support and it starts going up again, there's a good time to get in, in my opinion.
Numbers signify nothing, it could be at $6k it could be at $9k or it could be at $12, the exact number is not important. Understanding what your plan is and sticking to it is important. YMMV ;-)
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Update 23-06-2019: The upshot of the idea is that after three supercycle motive waves up (2011, 2014, 2017) we might be in for a huge A-B-C correction this time around.
I am not yet saying that I was right, it is too early to judge, but it still looks possible to me:
I am not yet saying that I was right, it is too early to judge, but it still looks possible to me:
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So far, price action as predicted. Bitcoin has even dipped twice below $10k.
From my point of view, the big question in the next few days will be whether the price will fall below the daily MA 38.
From my point of view, the big question in the next few days will be whether the price will fall below the daily MA 38.
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I think it will be interesting to see how long the price stays within the descending channel and whether it exits through the top or bottom wall
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It's broken out to the upside it seems
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New development, updated channel -- at the crossroads again -- up or down?
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Price development as predicted. Another 4h candle closes below the important MA230. The downtrend is practically sealed. Should the MA370 ($ 9.5k) be broken soon, Bitcoin is in dire straits.
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Next stop $8.2k
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Update available: The horrible thruth about Bitcoin - Part 2 - runs like clockwork...
By looking at the current 4h chart, what it tells me personally, is that Bitcoin has three options:
1. continue to linger on $ 4.9k
2. jump up to $ 6.0k
3. retrace back to $ 3.9k
Given the still too high RSI of 64, I think the third option is most likely to occur.