theheirophant
Long

Next Bitcoin Bull Run Climax -Top Cap Derived Estimate

BNC:BLX   BraveNewCoin Liquid Index for Bitcoin
Top Cap Derived Estimate for Next Bull Run Climax

Intro

A great indicator to use for catching the upper bounds in a bull run is top cap. Historically it has perfectly coincided with previous blow off tops. Another good one to use is the Puell Multiple. Let me also qualify this long positon as a HODL / long term position - not a speculative move.

Description

TopCap = Average Cap * 35

TopCap / TotalCoinSupply = Estimated Bullrun Climax

Ideas/Hypothesis

Please note that as the next bullrun occurs, Top Cap will continue to rise as well, which is why this is not an absolute value, but rather a potential range. I think anywhere from 50-90k is possible based on this setup.

Peak/Plateau Cycle

After a climax, and during a bear market, the top cap will continue increasing until it reaches a plateau point. I call this "Peak to Plateau." Then it goes flat for a bit and starts increasing again as the next bull cycle materializes. 'I call this Plateau to Peak."

As time goes on, the percent increase of each peak/plateau phase is diminishing (as other indicators corroborate as well, such as the Mayer Multiple or MVRV).

Your thoughts?
Do you have an opinion or idea regarding Top Cap, or the price projections here? I would love to hear your input so I can further refine and improve the indicator!

Closing Remarks

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