ReallyMe

The Shocking Truth: This is what BTC is really doing

BNC:BLX   BraveNewCoin Liquid Index for Bitcoin
I do not want to shock anyone, but maybe save some from the mistaken beliefs and financial disaster.

This, in my opinion, is what Bitcoin has really been doing since 2010.
(Weekly bars, log scale.)

If this assumption is true, it would mean that the impulsive phase is over.
Gone are the beautiful Waves 1, 3 and 5. Bye bye. Until next Supercycle (if there will be one).

It looks like we are in the middle of a giant corrective Wave A.

I shall not speculate here how deep down it will go or how high the next Wave B is going to be.
With dotted lines, I have sketched only one possible development that seems likely to me.

Take care.
Comment: I also understand better now why there are always so many ever positive writing pseudo-analysts on TradingView, who all encourage their followers to "accumulate" bitcoins.

The shocking truth is also that these always positive, to the moon "Top authors" probably have known for a long time exactly where the Bitcoin goes (I'm certainly not the only one who can spot Elliott Wave Supercycles) and all have huge short positions.

As long as the other "readers" or "followers" go long and "accumulate" as recommended by the masters, the money tirelessly flows from the fool to the sly.
Comment:
Comment: Again and again I get funny answers and comments that there are no supporting facts that Bitcoin would do, or that Bitcoin is no advantage and therefore does not need any correction cycles to build. Or the bitcoin is special because of the halving effect and the law of Metcalfe or whatever.

My opinion is the following: The Elliott Wave cycle is based on collective investor psychology, not on what is being traded. It's about optimism and pessimism, hope and disappointment in natural sequences.

As many of you are aware, the entire market and all the major assets or commodities and everything with big market capitalisation traded by many people are constantly going through Elliott Wave's pattern 8 waves cycles. Of course, that also happens on the supercycle level. Take a look at my latest idea on the S&P 500 Supercycles. See how the last Supercycle A-B-C correction for the S&P 500 went from May 2000 to March 2009? The same A-B-C correction course that I have sketched for Bitcoin, nothing else. While the Bitcoin Supercycle is not as long as the entire S&P 500 market, it does exist.

Comment: Here is a short version:

Nothing on earth can remain bullish forever. What goes up must come down. Bitcoin is no exception. The impulsive phase (3 waves up) is over, it is now going through the corrective phase (2 waves down). Face up to reality, it's just the way it is.
Comment: I've calculated that back and forth, considered and reconsidered and looked at it from different angles. This is my current assessment, which I think is more realistic. I guess it's going to be more like:
Comment: So my original idea from January 4, 2019 at which many people rolled their eyes and commented "oh no, never ever" was probably right!
Today it looks like this. We will see...
Comment: so far everything fits
Comment: Update 23-06-2019: The upshot of the idea is that after three supercycle motive waves up (2011, 2014, 2017) we might be in for a huge A-B-C correction this time around.
I am not yet saying that I was right, it is too early to judge, but it still looks possible to me:
Comment: Price development as predicted. Another 4h candle closes below the important MA230. The downtrend is practically sealed. Should the MA370 ($ 9.5k) be broken soon, Bitcoin is in dire straits.
Comment: Next stop $8.2k
Looks like this is really a corrective A-B-C. Now the question is, what happens after end of C-wave (if this is truly corrective waves downward).?
Reply
Comment removed.
hey, i think your initial idea standing point was wrong. coz you used elliott wave on log scale, it doesn't work that way.

your last update on Jan 10 of wave A point shall be reasonable and likely to happen. and on log scale, that's mainly based on btcusd historical bull & bear/retracement down to around 84%.

btw, another chartist lewisglasgow shared this calculation time back on log scale, you could have a look if you like.

Thanks for sharing your ideas to different perspective.
+1 Reply
ReallyMe miaomiao18
@miaomiao18, Yes, thanks. By the way, I just want to say, that you still can not know today that my first draft was wrong.

It's way too early to say. So far, everything is going according to plan. Maybe it will turn out to be the right one in the end. ;-)
Nobody knows what will happen to the price. We can, of course, talk and discuss and surmise and say, this is unlikely or that is likely, but as soon as the dice of the market is cast and it is clear which way the price has actually gone, all of this becomes just a useless yesterday's guesswork in the end.

Very rarely does the market do what people suspected and thought was likely.
Reply
@ReallyMe, true. my dressing point only lies on that Elliot waves doesn't apply on log scale
Reply
ReallyMe miaomiao18
@miaomiao18, Roger that. Well, in my experience they apply to the market as such, not to a chart. However, in the log scale it looks different than on a linear scale, that's true.
Reply
Great work!
+1 Reply
ReallyMe FuturesIntelTM
@FuturesIntelTM, Thank you
Reply
this is the worse analysis I've ever seen
+6 Reply
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