In this post, I took the popularized theory of the 4year bitcoin halving price cycle and conducted some analysis and price projection.
Namely I took note of the previous 2 cycles' price rise multiple from two starting points:
1. From bottom to cycle top
2. From halving to cycle top
One thing to notice is that the price multiple decreased from the first cycle to the second cycle on both of those metrics:
1. From bottom to cycle top: for the 1st halving, price increased by 600x from bottom to cycle top, and for the 2nd halving, price increased 125x from bottom to cycle top. This is roughly 5x reduction in the price multiple. If we assume that the current 3rd halving we will see the same 5x reduction in price multiple, we get 25x price from low of $3-4K, giving us a cycle top target of ~$80K.
2. From halving to cycle top: for the 1st halving, price increased 85x from the halving price to the cycle top, and for the 2nd halving, price increased 30x from halving price to cycle top. This is roughly a 2-3x reduction in the price multiple. If we assume that the current 3rd halving we well see the same 2-3 reduction in price multiple, we get 10x from halving price to cycle top, giving us a cycle top target of ~$90K
Combining both metrics, we see that they give roughly the same price target for this cycle top of around $80-90K. It is quite interesting and somewhat comforting to see the convergence of price target using these two separate metrics.
Some of you might think that it makes more sense to take an average of the previous two cycles as opposed to continue to reduce the price multiple. In that case, the price target will be much higher than the $80K-90K based on this analysis. There will also be some of you who think that the 4-year cycle wont repeat and that bitcoin will never reach these types of levels.
Let me know if you think this price target is conservative or aggressive. Would love to hear your thoughts.
This is not financial advice, please do your own Due Diligence. I'm just sharing my personal trades.
I will be posting ideas on a daily basis (whenever there are trade setups that meet my criteria).
Please follow, like, and comment to get daily trade setups and live trade updates.
Namely I took note of the previous 2 cycles' price rise multiple from two starting points:
1. From bottom to cycle top
2. From halving to cycle top
One thing to notice is that the price multiple decreased from the first cycle to the second cycle on both of those metrics:
1. From bottom to cycle top: for the 1st halving, price increased by 600x from bottom to cycle top, and for the 2nd halving, price increased 125x from bottom to cycle top. This is roughly 5x reduction in the price multiple. If we assume that the current 3rd halving we will see the same 5x reduction in price multiple, we get 25x price from low of $3-4K, giving us a cycle top target of ~$80K.
2. From halving to cycle top: for the 1st halving, price increased 85x from the halving price to the cycle top, and for the 2nd halving, price increased 30x from halving price to cycle top. This is roughly a 2-3x reduction in the price multiple. If we assume that the current 3rd halving we well see the same 2-3 reduction in price multiple, we get 10x from halving price to cycle top, giving us a cycle top target of ~$90K
Combining both metrics, we see that they give roughly the same price target for this cycle top of around $80-90K. It is quite interesting and somewhat comforting to see the convergence of price target using these two separate metrics.
Some of you might think that it makes more sense to take an average of the previous two cycles as opposed to continue to reduce the price multiple. In that case, the price target will be much higher than the $80K-90K based on this analysis. There will also be some of you who think that the 4-year cycle wont repeat and that bitcoin will never reach these types of levels.
Let me know if you think this price target is conservative or aggressive. Would love to hear your thoughts.
This is not financial advice, please do your own Due Diligence. I'm just sharing my personal trades.
I will be posting ideas on a daily basis (whenever there are trade setups that meet my criteria).
Please follow, like, and comment to get daily trade setups and live trade updates.