From the origin of Bitcoin to the peak of each bull run, a trend line was drawn. Using the "trend angle" tool I found the angle corresponding to each bull market.
Bull Run 1 (2010-2011): 74 degrees
Bull Run 2 (2012-2013): 56 degrees
Bull Run 3 (2015-2017): 41 degrees
Bull Run (2020-2022?): 30 degrees?
By comparing the angle of the previous bull run to the following bull run, a repeating ratio reveals itself.
Bull Run 1 = 74
Bull Run 2 = 56
74/56 = 1.32
Bull Run 2 = 56
Bull Run 3 = 41
56/41 = 1.36
These numbers could be a coincidence, but seeing how Bitcoin has followed a logarithmic regression that seemingly revolves in 4-year cycles, it wouldn't surprise me if more patterns revealed themselves.
So where do we go from here? To see where we might be heading, we simply continue the model.
Bull Run 3 = 41
Bull Run 4 = x
Bull Run 4 is the bull run that the 2020 Halving has started. As it has not happened yet, we do not know the Angle of Growth. However, by recognizing that the ratio between two consecutive bull runs is around 1.3, we can use this information to calculate the angle.
41/x = ~1.3
41/1.3 = x
x = ~30 degrees
What is remarkable about the "trend angle" I drew at 30 degrees, is that it touches the crash in March 2020 from the pandemic. In fact it acts as almost perfect support! (light blue trend line)
On the other hand, I drew a curve that connects the peak of each bull run (white dotted curve). The area where the white curve and the trend line of Bull Run 4 converge is around Spring 2022 @ $100,000.
Hope you all are enjoying this bullish sentiment as much as I am.
On a side note, seeing these patterns through mathematics excites me because math is impartial. Using math to map the future eliminates the possibility of a Confirmation Bias finding "patterns" that aren't actually there. The truth is in the math...
Bull Run 1 (2010-2011): 74 degrees
Bull Run 2 (2012-2013): 56 degrees
Bull Run 3 (2015-2017): 41 degrees
Bull Run (2020-2022?): 30 degrees?
By comparing the angle of the previous bull run to the following bull run, a repeating ratio reveals itself.
Bull Run 1 = 74
Bull Run 2 = 56
74/56 = 1.32
Bull Run 2 = 56
Bull Run 3 = 41
56/41 = 1.36
These numbers could be a coincidence, but seeing how Bitcoin has followed a logarithmic regression that seemingly revolves in 4-year cycles, it wouldn't surprise me if more patterns revealed themselves.
So where do we go from here? To see where we might be heading, we simply continue the model.
Bull Run 3 = 41
Bull Run 4 = x
Bull Run 4 is the bull run that the 2020 Halving has started. As it has not happened yet, we do not know the Angle of Growth. However, by recognizing that the ratio between two consecutive bull runs is around 1.3, we can use this information to calculate the angle.
41/x = ~1.3
41/1.3 = x
x = ~30 degrees
What is remarkable about the "trend angle" I drew at 30 degrees, is that it touches the crash in March 2020 from the pandemic. In fact it acts as almost perfect support! (light blue trend line)
On the other hand, I drew a curve that connects the peak of each bull run (white dotted curve). The area where the white curve and the trend line of Bull Run 4 converge is around Spring 2022 @ $100,000.
Hope you all are enjoying this bullish sentiment as much as I am.
On a side note, seeing these patterns through mathematics excites me because math is impartial. Using math to map the future eliminates the possibility of a Confirmation Bias finding "patterns" that aren't actually there. The truth is in the math...