Hey everyone,
I just want to clarify that i'm not here to discuss the fundamental future of Bitcoin (like the regulated implementation of it in the real world), but instead, show you a very simple long term understanding of where the price might take us, especially after the 3rd consecutive block reward halving that will occur in May. You may have seen a similar type of analysis before, but I assure you, ignoring it will only leave you with regret in the following years to come!
First of, let's understand how the previous "halvings" affected the price of Bitcoin:
1st Halving - BTC goes up around 9,000% to create the new higher high.
2nd Halving - BTC goes up around 4,000% to create the new higher high.
9000/4000 gave us a 2.25 interval. Technically speaking, history within the markets tends to repeat itself. So, our estimation for next price increase (3rd halving), would have to be 4000/2.25 which would give 1,777! This is the number we should consider to determine the next bull run percentage increase from the day halving occurs.
In other words, a bull run is highly anticipated. Mining Bitcoin will become more difficult and there will be less Bitcoin available in supply, which ultimately makes it more scarce. Due to this fact, the demand will be much higher to acquire Bitcoin. The biggest changes in the crypto ecosystem this time, will be the higher public awareness around bitcoin and the interest of institutional investors (hedge funds, banks, pensions, etc.) taking part within the market. Increased public awareness could also lead to a wave of FOMO (fear of missing out) buying power, which could push the Bitcoins price higher and faster. When more financial institutions begin taking big positions, it could affect bitcoin in ways investors have never seen before.
Moving more into the technical side of the analysis, just pay attention to the curve line we see Bitcoin using as a respected support level. It has been respecting it from the very beginning of it's creation, and recently we bounced off the 6,500 price, which acted as the major and probably even the final level of support to acquire Bitcoin at. Looking at the chart today, we see that the curve line surpassed that level and is no longer expecting it to retest it, showing more buying pressure before halving!
We also have quite an important trend line to look out for, which formed itself within the lower high and the current higher high on the 1W time frame. It gives us a better clue as to where the next profit taking levels for Bitcoin would be.
So with all that being said, just note that at the moment we are exactly at the stages where you would be wanting to buy Bitcoin and hold it for a very long period of time, otherwise later would be too late. However, we are actually expecting a pullback to commence in the following weeks, which could ultimately send the price of Bitcoin to the 1st buying target at around 8,500, or the next target at 7,500, which will act as the key level of support to enter longs.
Hopefully this was useful guys. Please trade at your own risk and make sure to invest only as much as you're willing to lose!
Thanks.
I just want to clarify that i'm not here to discuss the fundamental future of Bitcoin (like the regulated implementation of it in the real world), but instead, show you a very simple long term understanding of where the price might take us, especially after the 3rd consecutive block reward halving that will occur in May. You may have seen a similar type of analysis before, but I assure you, ignoring it will only leave you with regret in the following years to come!
First of, let's understand how the previous "halvings" affected the price of Bitcoin:
1st Halving - BTC goes up around 9,000% to create the new higher high.
2nd Halving - BTC goes up around 4,000% to create the new higher high.
9000/4000 gave us a 2.25 interval. Technically speaking, history within the markets tends to repeat itself. So, our estimation for next price increase (3rd halving), would have to be 4000/2.25 which would give 1,777! This is the number we should consider to determine the next bull run percentage increase from the day halving occurs.
In other words, a bull run is highly anticipated. Mining Bitcoin will become more difficult and there will be less Bitcoin available in supply, which ultimately makes it more scarce. Due to this fact, the demand will be much higher to acquire Bitcoin. The biggest changes in the crypto ecosystem this time, will be the higher public awareness around bitcoin and the interest of institutional investors (hedge funds, banks, pensions, etc.) taking part within the market. Increased public awareness could also lead to a wave of FOMO (fear of missing out) buying power, which could push the Bitcoins price higher and faster. When more financial institutions begin taking big positions, it could affect bitcoin in ways investors have never seen before.
Moving more into the technical side of the analysis, just pay attention to the curve line we see Bitcoin using as a respected support level. It has been respecting it from the very beginning of it's creation, and recently we bounced off the 6,500 price, which acted as the major and probably even the final level of support to acquire Bitcoin at. Looking at the chart today, we see that the curve line surpassed that level and is no longer expecting it to retest it, showing more buying pressure before halving!
We also have quite an important trend line to look out for, which formed itself within the lower high and the current higher high on the 1W time frame. It gives us a better clue as to where the next profit taking levels for Bitcoin would be.
So with all that being said, just note that at the moment we are exactly at the stages where you would be wanting to buy Bitcoin and hold it for a very long period of time, otherwise later would be too late. However, we are actually expecting a pullback to commence in the following weeks, which could ultimately send the price of Bitcoin to the 1st buying target at around 8,500, or the next target at 7,500, which will act as the key level of support to enter longs.
Hopefully this was useful guys. Please trade at your own risk and make sure to invest only as much as you're willing to lose!
Thanks.
Comment:
*Due to COVID-19, this analysis is still viable fundamentally, but technically we can see some changes.