Bitcoin From 2010 to 2025: A Bullish Corrective Wave
A follow-up to my pervious invalidated long term idea of BItcoin reaching $3,000,000 within the next decade..
(to state it explicitly, this idea has largely been invalidated by further review of Bitcoin's macro price action).
This idea will be largely contrary to my previous. Based on a number of subtle signals discovered through Bitcoin's price action review, I feel at liberty to say that there's is no way that BTCUSD is structured in an Impulsive Wave format. Its expeditious growth has not once made a sizeable enough correction to satisfy a Wave 2 requirement - not one time. Generally, we expect Wave 2 to retrace at least to the 50% fib level, the most we've seen for Bitcoin (on the fib scale is 38%).
Corrections to the 38% fib level are very commonly seen within Wave B (or Wave X) in certain cases. Whether it be Wave B or Wave X, these fractals only come within corrective wave forms. Zig-Zags (the most common corrective wave type) notoriously travel much faster than Impulsive waves as well. At its current price level, BItcoin has grown 1969928%, in a matter of 13 years. We could easily classify this as a 'much faster' pump than we've seen outside of the OTC Market.
Not to drag this write-up out too long as all of my notes and thoughts are shared on the chart but let this be the main point(s):
1) Bitcoin is 1000% not in an Impulsive Wave structure.
2) In the traditional sense of price action, Bitcoin has not built any horizontal base.
3) Bullish corrective waves typically retrace 61.8%-89% on average.
Seemingly in a Bullish Double Zig-Zag wave, I believe Bitcoin has enough gas left to reach towards $174,017.93 to $329,945.48. I suspect this target range could be reach between November 2024 and March 2025 however, beyond this phase Bitcoin should/could be due for another (more drastic) Crypto Winter. Based on the rules and guidelines of Elliott Wave Theory, I believe the downside target could very well drop below $10. At worst case, it becomes the next Luna-Bomber! Permabulls, Diamond Hand(ers) and HODLers should mentally condition themselves to protect capital and to remain loyal to the same.
*Current upside and downside targets are based on the idea that $15,501 will continue to hold as the regional low. If this low is broken, the idea of a new-ATH is invalidated and bottom targets could come much quicker but, its impossible for the longstanding structure of Bitcoin's chart to be changed. This should be my last post on TradingVIew for Bitcoin. Surf well!
(to state it explicitly, this idea has largely been invalidated by further review of Bitcoin's macro price action).
This idea will be largely contrary to my previous. Based on a number of subtle signals discovered through Bitcoin's price action review, I feel at liberty to say that there's is no way that BTCUSD is structured in an Impulsive Wave format. Its expeditious growth has not once made a sizeable enough correction to satisfy a Wave 2 requirement - not one time. Generally, we expect Wave 2 to retrace at least to the 50% fib level, the most we've seen for Bitcoin (on the fib scale is 38%).
Corrections to the 38% fib level are very commonly seen within Wave B (or Wave X) in certain cases. Whether it be Wave B or Wave X, these fractals only come within corrective wave forms. Zig-Zags (the most common corrective wave type) notoriously travel much faster than Impulsive waves as well. At its current price level, BItcoin has grown 1969928%, in a matter of 13 years. We could easily classify this as a 'much faster' pump than we've seen outside of the OTC Market.
Not to drag this write-up out too long as all of my notes and thoughts are shared on the chart but let this be the main point(s):
1) Bitcoin is 1000% not in an Impulsive Wave structure.
2) In the traditional sense of price action, Bitcoin has not built any horizontal base.
3) Bullish corrective waves typically retrace 61.8%-89% on average.
Seemingly in a Bullish Double Zig-Zag wave, I believe Bitcoin has enough gas left to reach towards $174,017.93 to $329,945.48. I suspect this target range could be reach between November 2024 and March 2025 however, beyond this phase Bitcoin should/could be due for another (more drastic) Crypto Winter. Based on the rules and guidelines of Elliott Wave Theory, I believe the downside target could very well drop below $10. At worst case, it becomes the next Luna-Bomber! Permabulls, Diamond Hand(ers) and HODLers should mentally condition themselves to protect capital and to remain loyal to the same.
*Current upside and downside targets are based on the idea that $15,501 will continue to hold as the regional low. If this low is broken, the idea of a new-ATH is invalidated and bottom targets could come much quicker but, its impossible for the longstanding structure of Bitcoin's chart to be changed. This should be my last post on TradingVIew for Bitcoin. Surf well!
Comment:
Meh, horrible chart work and lackluster explanation on my logic within this post. Please see update here for more detailed insight on my thought process.
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