This chart illustrates long term extrapolation of the log chart trend for Bitcoin , with key Arc trends which could hold a clue to the near term future and longer term trend.
In Summary there has been 4 periods of 'mean' growth / consolidation in the lower arc range with one period of hype and one period of bear market. Following the updated version for 2011, we can also add a one year micro period of Hype, Bear and Bull
Based on this historical trend, any break of price above the white line pushing toward the pink average arc line has either resulted in a slam back down to the yellow support range or blasted off into the hype territory.
This would therefore suggest that the top of the current move is likely to be somewhere around or just above $2k, however a break of this and a repeat of the previous moves could see bitcoin having the potential to make a push towards max $20 - $30k over the course of a year, with the current move simply being the start. i.e. $2k breaks and we could see much, much higher after which a long term bear / consol period would ensue.
Pressing into 2020 we would likely resume the moves proceeding the 2016 halvening around 4-$10k and quite possibly another hype phase, again following it, much higher towards $70k.
While this is an extrapolation of a back trend looking towards forward price discovery,the market conditions fit and hey... its all i have to work with.
As an investor it would appear there could be great gains to be made both based on the supply halvening fundamentals and increased demand. The yellow line as a floor indicator for a break of long term trend will be key to my bag holding decision making.
Within this trend, even an investment at $2k (should it be the top), may yield a return of c.5x based on this trend around 2020.
As a trader, the current market condition suggests a real make or break as to wether we enter a short term shorting opportunity or a really awesome period of volitility for two periods.
Whilst this is not financial advice and is only evidence of a clear trend it represents to me awesome opportunities and exciting times ahead both in the short and long term.
Hope you found this of some use.
(Update) More evidence for us being either at the top of the current move, or at the foot of a huge run up in my mind came with bitcoin getting caught up in the global hack towards the end of this week.
I see one of two scenarios playing out;
- a 'china bans bitcoin' event where governments wage war on crypto. This will probably cause a run off in price similar to that seen at the start of this year
- a realisation that bitcoin is not going to be going away.. governments and institutions will have to buy bitcoin as insurance against these hacking events which are going to occur regardless of whether they try to ban bitcoin , (which of corse they can't) and therefore it will be necessary for BTC to be held as an insurance to bail out.
As they say, any publicity is good publicity and I would imagine that the second senario described will inevitably cause the next hype style period at some.. the question is will the price have a shock before it occurs.
regarding to NVT ratio we are not in a bubble.. http://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-nvt-ratio/