filbfilb
Long

Bitcoin Long Term Trend Analysis.. A near term clue?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
This chart illustrates long term extrapolation of the log chart trend for Bitcoin             , with key Arc trends which could hold a clue to the near term future and longer term trend.

In Summary there has been 4 periods of 'mean' bullish growth / consolidation in the lower arc range with one period of hype and one period of bear market.

Based on this historical trend, any break of price above the white line pushing toward the pink average arc line has either resulted in a slam back down to the yellow support range or blasted off into the hype territory.

This would therefore suggest that the top of the current move is likely to be somewhere around or just above $2k, however a break of this and a repeat of the previous moves could see bitcoin             having the potential to make a push towards max $20 - $30k over the course of a year, with the current move simply being the start. i.e. $2k breaks and we could see much, much higher after which a long term bear / consol period would ensue.

Pressing into 2020 we would likely resume the moves proceeding the 2016 halvening around 4-$10k and quite possibly another hype phase, again following it, much higher towards $70k.

While this is an extrapolation of a back trend looking towards forward price discovery,the market conditions fit and hey... its all i have to work with.

As an investor it would appear there could be great gains to be made both based on the supply halvening fundamentals and increased demand. The yellow line as a floor indicator for a break of long term trend will be key to my bag holding decision making.
Within this trend, even an investment at $2k (should it be the top), may yield a return of c.5x based on this trend around 2020.

As a trader, the current market condition suggests a real make or break as to wether we enter a short term shorting opportunity or a really awesome period of volitility for two periods.

Whilst this is not financial advice and is only evidence of a clear trend it represents to me awesome opportunities and exciting times ahead both in the short and long term.

Hope you found this of some use.
Comment: More evidence for us being either at the top of the current move, or at the foot of a huge run up in my mind came with bitcoin getting caught up in the global hack towards the end of this week.

I see one of two scenarios playing out;

- a 'china bans bitcoin' event where governments wage war on crypto. This will probably cause a run off in price similar to that at the start of this year

- a realisation that bitcoin is not going to be going away.. governments and insitiutions will have to buy bitcoin as insurance against these hacking events which are going to occur regardless of wether they try to ban bitcoin, (which of corse they can't) and therefore it will be necessary to be held as an insurance to bail out.

As they say, any publicity is good publicity and I would imagine that the second senario described will inevitablycause the next hype style period at some.. the question is will the price have a shock before it occurs.
Comment: i think its fair to say we have gone parabolic. Both retail and institutional investors have entered the market in their different capacities. We may re test this breakout support again in the short run, but it looks like major hype/buuble 3.0 has commenced.

Good luck all. Please manage your risk, in my view the best strategy is a phased cash out / re entry as an investor post bubble. Do not risk everything - you cannot go bust taking profit.
Comment: Click the chart for the commentary

Comment: it is time
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Comment: Its time for the next phase.

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Comment: We just keep going.. pleanty of room to bubble into ;)
Comment: although it feels like one i dont think it is https://youtu.be/4q8QDsIsiIo
Comment: to the moon!
Comment: Considering this as a corrective structure if the MM looks for max pain
Comment: heres the updated forecast i am working off

Comment: Detailed market analysis update here guys. I may mothball this thread havent decided yet.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/LGfs4PUa-Bitcoin-A-Long-Tern-Market-Analysis/#tc1768144
Update please ? (Genius)
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so basically after 2021 you say that there is no upside potential left in bitcoin?
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filbfilb Johnsdad
@Johnsdad, to achieve more than 100k per coin will be very difficult in my opinion. Not impossible.
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Hello,

I'm trying to recreate your chart for myself.

I've tried the "curve" drawing tool, but it is very awkward.

What tool are you using to create the arcs?

Please advise - thanks!
+2 Reply
I would say cycle repeat. We have a ways to go before it bottoms back to mean trend line. IMO bears are here for awhile.
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Looks like this might play out exactly like in the chart.
+2 Reply
Any updates on this @filbfilb
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Checked specification of CME futures position limit is 1000 contracts = 5000 BTC limit (around 50mln $). For institutions it not much. So it will be still not easy to get any meaningful exposition to BTC. Any link for CBOE contract specification ?
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Is another small correction expected after the new ATH yesterday?
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filbfilb ChristianYesdal
@ChristianYesdal, there will be a correction at some point but China and Japan are yet to make new all time high so i think we will push on another $300-400 in the next 48 hours
+1 Reply
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