I recommend you watch Bob Loukas' video posted earlier today on Bitcoin Live before you read my comments and take on what he had to say.
Having said that, I have my own thoughts to agree and disagree with what he said. He said he thought since the blowoff top didn't occur in the time frame he had originally projected, meaning the end of 2021, that it is possible the peak for this cycle was $69K on Nov 10th. His other point was that since the Jan close was lower than the 10 month moving average; that was the reason he took 10 BTC profit in the $43.8K range and made 10 x on his original buys several years ago. He said he is ok with having taken profit there given these facts and that he is constantly trying to hedge against risk.
I have a few arguments with his points. Bob really still believes in a 4 year cycle for Bitcoin, meaning from cycle low to cycle low is and has been 4 years. This is simply not true and I have illustrated this here in posts many times. I will go over it again. July 2010 was the beginning of BTC trading on exchanges; that 6 cents beginning is considered the cycle low. Then BTC went to $31.90 in June 2011 for a cycle high and went into a 5 month bear market to $2.01 in Nov 2011 to form the bear market low. Thus cycle 1 was 16 months from July 2010 to the bear market low in Nov 2011. The second cycle went to a high in Nov 2013 at $1177 and then went into a 13.5 month bear market to bottom at $164 in mid Jan 2015. Thus the 2nd cycle was from the Nov 2011 bear market low to the Jan 2015 bear market low for a total of 38 months.
The 3rd cycle was from Jan 2015 to the cycle high in Dec 2017 at $19892 to the bear market low a year later at $3129 in Dec 2018. Thus the 3rd cycle lasted from Jan 2015 to Dec 2018 for a total of 47 months. This was the only 4 year cycle in Bitcoin's history. This is the main problem I have with Bitcoin's "4 year journey series" he's made in youtube videos for the last 3 years. He still believes in a 4 year Bitcoin cycle when it's pretty clear the cycles are LENGTHENING.
This 4th cycle has gone from Dec 2018 to now Feb 2022. Bob thinks BTC may have topped in Nov 2021 at $69000; I don't believe it has. One reason is Bitcoin has always topped at the top of the BTC log growth curves by Cole Garner on Trading View; $69000 wasn't even close to the top of the curves; it was at the 6th curve or so and the top is the 10th curve. There was no "blowoff" top and they've always occurred in Bitcoin's history at cycle highs. All the on chain metrics also don't indicate a cycle high occurred in Nov 2021 like cbbi.info and lookintobitcoin.com.
Actually none of them indicated a cycle high; instead they indicated to still accumulate in a long term trend. Bob mentioned nothing about on chain metrics in his video.
Also few people look at Elliott Waves to help determine Bitcoin's cycle tops and most that do are not experts at drawing them and are flawed in how they mark waves. I'm not an expert but I see nobody really who has indicated or drawn an intermediate wave (5) cycle top at $69K. The last 10 months has been a long running flat corrective pattern from the April 2021 $64899 top. That was the the intermediate wave (3) top. The move down to $28800 was minor wave A of (4) in June 2021. The move to $69000 in Nov 2021 was minor wave B of (4). The move down to $32933 on Jan 24, 2022 was probably a minor wave C of (4) and the completion of intermediate wave (4). If it was the low, then the last 10 months has been a "running flat" corrective wave with C price $32933 higher than the A wave price of $28800. If price did fall below $28800 into Bob's March 60 day cycle bottom, then the pattern to me would just turn into an "expanded flat" longer 4th (4) wave and intermediate wave (5) is still to come to form a cycle high.
And Bob alludes to this in the two paths he illustrated Bitcoin could take the next couple of years. He said the March low could test $32933 again and then rocket higher for a year to his original $150000 to $200000 price. His other path was lower than the June 2021 $28800 price but still went on a rampant move higher in the next year to much higher prices in the aforementioned price range. So he's describing two paths but both lead to wave (5) cycle tops. The key is to be patient with these cycles because they are lengthening. Ben Cowen, Nick Merten, and other lengthening cycle analysts IMO are correct. A cycle top is probably as soon as the end of this year (Nick Merten) and as long as 2nd or 3rd quarter 2023 (Ben Cowen).
Bob even puts in a bearish pattern that could take BTC 80% down or more from $69K down to $13000. While anything is possible with BTC, it has never gone below previous cycle highs mid cycle or at the end of bear markets after cycle highs. The Jan 2015 $164 low was still a multiple of 5 times the previous ATH in June 2011 of $31.90. The Dec 2018 bear market low of $3129 was still 2.7 times the $1177 previous cycle high in Nov 2013. So no I don't believe BTC is going below $19892 down to $13K like Bob proposed as a possibility.
Bob didn't sell all his BTC like many analysts have to his credit. He just hedged his bet in case the unlikely did happen by taking profit at $43.8K. Bob has had two different interviews with Ben Cowen and while Bob is open to the lengthening cycle concept, I don't believe he is a convert yet. But yet his two paths prove once again this cycle will be longer than the last cycle which was 47 months. Dec 2018 to now is 38 months. Bob's two paths take the cycle high into 2023 with a bear market low at the end of 2023. Thus this cycle will be about 60 months, 13 months longer than the last cycle length of 47 months. So whether Bob believes it or not yet, the cycles have been 16 months, then 38 months, then 47 months, and this cycle if Bob's two paths are correct will be about 60 months to the next bear market low.
Having said that, I have my own thoughts to agree and disagree with what he said. He said he thought since the blowoff top didn't occur in the time frame he had originally projected, meaning the end of 2021, that it is possible the peak for this cycle was $69K on Nov 10th. His other point was that since the Jan close was lower than the 10 month moving average; that was the reason he took 10 BTC profit in the $43.8K range and made 10 x on his original buys several years ago. He said he is ok with having taken profit there given these facts and that he is constantly trying to hedge against risk.
I have a few arguments with his points. Bob really still believes in a 4 year cycle for Bitcoin, meaning from cycle low to cycle low is and has been 4 years. This is simply not true and I have illustrated this here in posts many times. I will go over it again. July 2010 was the beginning of BTC trading on exchanges; that 6 cents beginning is considered the cycle low. Then BTC went to $31.90 in June 2011 for a cycle high and went into a 5 month bear market to $2.01 in Nov 2011 to form the bear market low. Thus cycle 1 was 16 months from July 2010 to the bear market low in Nov 2011. The second cycle went to a high in Nov 2013 at $1177 and then went into a 13.5 month bear market to bottom at $164 in mid Jan 2015. Thus the 2nd cycle was from the Nov 2011 bear market low to the Jan 2015 bear market low for a total of 38 months.
The 3rd cycle was from Jan 2015 to the cycle high in Dec 2017 at $19892 to the bear market low a year later at $3129 in Dec 2018. Thus the 3rd cycle lasted from Jan 2015 to Dec 2018 for a total of 47 months. This was the only 4 year cycle in Bitcoin's history. This is the main problem I have with Bitcoin's "4 year journey series" he's made in youtube videos for the last 3 years. He still believes in a 4 year Bitcoin cycle when it's pretty clear the cycles are LENGTHENING.
This 4th cycle has gone from Dec 2018 to now Feb 2022. Bob thinks BTC may have topped in Nov 2021 at $69000; I don't believe it has. One reason is Bitcoin has always topped at the top of the BTC log growth curves by Cole Garner on Trading View; $69000 wasn't even close to the top of the curves; it was at the 6th curve or so and the top is the 10th curve. There was no "blowoff" top and they've always occurred in Bitcoin's history at cycle highs. All the on chain metrics also don't indicate a cycle high occurred in Nov 2021 like cbbi.info and lookintobitcoin.com.
Actually none of them indicated a cycle high; instead they indicated to still accumulate in a long term trend. Bob mentioned nothing about on chain metrics in his video.
Also few people look at Elliott Waves to help determine Bitcoin's cycle tops and most that do are not experts at drawing them and are flawed in how they mark waves. I'm not an expert but I see nobody really who has indicated or drawn an intermediate wave (5) cycle top at $69K. The last 10 months has been a long running flat corrective pattern from the April 2021 $64899 top. That was the the intermediate wave (3) top. The move down to $28800 was minor wave A of (4) in June 2021. The move to $69000 in Nov 2021 was minor wave B of (4). The move down to $32933 on Jan 24, 2022 was probably a minor wave C of (4) and the completion of intermediate wave (4). If it was the low, then the last 10 months has been a "running flat" corrective wave with C price $32933 higher than the A wave price of $28800. If price did fall below $28800 into Bob's March 60 day cycle bottom, then the pattern to me would just turn into an "expanded flat" longer 4th (4) wave and intermediate wave (5) is still to come to form a cycle high.
And Bob alludes to this in the two paths he illustrated Bitcoin could take the next couple of years. He said the March low could test $32933 again and then rocket higher for a year to his original $150000 to $200000 price. His other path was lower than the June 2021 $28800 price but still went on a rampant move higher in the next year to much higher prices in the aforementioned price range. So he's describing two paths but both lead to wave (5) cycle tops. The key is to be patient with these cycles because they are lengthening. Ben Cowen, Nick Merten, and other lengthening cycle analysts IMO are correct. A cycle top is probably as soon as the end of this year (Nick Merten) and as long as 2nd or 3rd quarter 2023 (Ben Cowen).
Bob even puts in a bearish pattern that could take BTC 80% down or more from $69K down to $13000. While anything is possible with BTC, it has never gone below previous cycle highs mid cycle or at the end of bear markets after cycle highs. The Jan 2015 $164 low was still a multiple of 5 times the previous ATH in June 2011 of $31.90. The Dec 2018 bear market low of $3129 was still 2.7 times the $1177 previous cycle high in Nov 2013. So no I don't believe BTC is going below $19892 down to $13K like Bob proposed as a possibility.
Bob didn't sell all his BTC like many analysts have to his credit. He just hedged his bet in case the unlikely did happen by taking profit at $43.8K. Bob has had two different interviews with Ben Cowen and while Bob is open to the lengthening cycle concept, I don't believe he is a convert yet. But yet his two paths prove once again this cycle will be longer than the last cycle which was 47 months. Dec 2018 to now is 38 months. Bob's two paths take the cycle high into 2023 with a bear market low at the end of 2023. Thus this cycle will be about 60 months, 13 months longer than the last cycle length of 47 months. So whether Bob believes it or not yet, the cycles have been 16 months, then 38 months, then 47 months, and this cycle if Bob's two paths are correct will be about 60 months to the next bear market low.