BTC AFTER 11.8k CME GAP FILL SCENARIO and AFTER HALVING P.A.
This study demonstrates the possible bounces that BTC can make in the scenario that it fills the CME gap at 11.8k BEFORE the halving (which is very probable at this point) and then makes a ~30% correction eliminating weak hands then makes another fake rally across halving only to make another correction (right after halving), making people think halving is not the "same" (but it actually is and will be) then the 2 - 3 year bull market starts from 8-9k
There is another scenario (before halving), making 37-40% correction (instead of mere 30%) from
A) CME GAP (11.8k's)
B) 13k-14k
A leads back to low 7k's (7350?) but a mere wick. Hard to catch without a solid limit order.
B leads to the CME gap at 8.5 (if you can call it a "gap") or a 8.2k wick which is more catchable.
I don't see any reason to pass above 14k before the halving but if it happens (lets say 5% probability) the correction will only be deadlier which would/should bring us back to even lower areas like the CME gap at 5k's. But this would be a glitch which is irrelevant to the fabric of PA and makes no rhyme with history considering the hash ribbons and every other kind of percent moves, hence 5% probability.
This study is WIP
Please be adviced and DYOR.
There is another scenario (before halving), making 37-40% correction (instead of mere 30%) from
A) CME GAP (11.8k's)
B) 13k-14k
A leads back to low 7k's (7350?) but a mere wick. Hard to catch without a solid limit order.
B leads to the CME gap at 8.5 (if you can call it a "gap") or a 8.2k wick which is more catchable.
I don't see any reason to pass above 14k before the halving but if it happens (lets say 5% probability) the correction will only be deadlier which would/should bring us back to even lower areas like the CME gap at 5k's. But this would be a glitch which is irrelevant to the fabric of PA and makes no rhyme with history considering the hash ribbons and every other kind of percent moves, hence 5% probability.
This study is WIP
Please be adviced and DYOR.
In the case of low 10k consolidation (1-2 weeks) Open Interest (Longs, Funding Rates etc.) and Volume must be rechecked to reassess the probability of the PA mentioned above.
If the 10k high 9k consolidation is prolonged (which is very low chance considering the volatility percentile squeeze) only then BTC should move up (in a healthier fashion) to fill the gap from these levels.
None of these scenarios invalidate the possible correction (after CME GAP before halving) mentioned in the main article.