Bottom for the 2018 Bitcoin bear market and next bull-run peak?
On my previous BTC analisys I was contemplating the idea that once the price firmly breaks under the 200 day SMA it's all over and the bull market gives way to a bear market. It seems like my idea is being confirmed so far, I also was playing with the idea of dating the time of the bottom by using the crossover point of the bull run "floor" and the last downtrend line before the price would break above the 200 day SMA.
I kept wondering about the price of that bottom and eventually I realized about the fact that the "band" or "belt" drawn by the 200 and 233 (fib level) weeks simple moving averages perfectly caught the bottom of the last bear market and that belt seems to oriented to that point of confluence.
When trying to draw conclusions I tried to apply the Fibonacci tool in order to see if there was any correlation between previous BTC bear market corrections, although at the beginning I couldn't find any coincidence when I added the not so commonly used .88 and .939 fib levels it was obvious I had something.
The last bear market corrected to somewhere in between .786 and .88 from the all time low, and the first one to .939 (this last one is not on the chart), due to the similarities between the last bear market and this current one, I'm entertaining the idea that things could easily repeat, so the price could be supported by the 200/233 weeks SMA, retrace to somewhere between the .786 and .88 fib levels at the time the downtrend line and the bull-run "floor" crossing.
I'm also including on the chart the 128/144 week SMA belt (orange-red) and the 350/377 week SMA one (white-gray) as those two belts are the closest ones to the 200/233 week one and they should also be considered as possible support to this bear market if it happened to be a slightly different correction than the previous one.
It was very interesting to see when I was drawing the Fibonacci retracement from the all time low to the all time high, that the previous bull-run that peaked at $1,200 on November 2013 matched exactly the .939 retracement from the current all time high, so if this was to be repeated a future bull-run could peak at $318,000!! but we could also consider $164,000 or $90,000 if it were to be only a .88 and .786 respectively.
Hope you find it as interesting as I do.
Best
I kept wondering about the price of that bottom and eventually I realized about the fact that the "band" or "belt" drawn by the 200 and 233 (fib level) weeks simple moving averages perfectly caught the bottom of the last bear market and that belt seems to oriented to that point of confluence.
When trying to draw conclusions I tried to apply the Fibonacci tool in order to see if there was any correlation between previous BTC bear market corrections, although at the beginning I couldn't find any coincidence when I added the not so commonly used .88 and .939 fib levels it was obvious I had something.
The last bear market corrected to somewhere in between .786 and .88 from the all time low, and the first one to .939 (this last one is not on the chart), due to the similarities between the last bear market and this current one, I'm entertaining the idea that things could easily repeat, so the price could be supported by the 200/233 weeks SMA, retrace to somewhere between the .786 and .88 fib levels at the time the downtrend line and the bull-run "floor" crossing.
I'm also including on the chart the 128/144 week SMA belt (orange-red) and the 350/377 week SMA one (white-gray) as those two belts are the closest ones to the 200/233 week one and they should also be considered as possible support to this bear market if it happened to be a slightly different correction than the previous one.
It was very interesting to see when I was drawing the Fibonacci retracement from the all time low to the all time high, that the previous bull-run that peaked at $1,200 on November 2013 matched exactly the .939 retracement from the current all time high, so if this was to be repeated a future bull-run could peak at $318,000!! but we could also consider $164,000 or $90,000 if it were to be only a .88 and .786 respectively.
Hope you find it as interesting as I do.
Best
