Bitcoin: What if McAffee was right?!? o_O
Now let us speculate a bit now, and ponder an ultrabull case. Of course, I fully admit that I am a bitcoin bull, and always believed we'd see 1 million USD per BTC. But my estimate has always been 2030 for hitting 1 million.
Now, for shits and giggles, let's just ponder the possibility of a bitcoin hyper-adoption suddenly taking place until 2020, in order to reach McAffee's famous 1 million prediction.
How would the growth pattern and the TA-justification for such a move look?
I tried to draw it. The logic behind it, from a pure TA perspective is, that bitcoin was in a steep exponential channel from 2011-2013 (before in an even steeper one).
Now, after that, bitcoin went into the slower squareroot-function channel, which in the logarithmic chart, is represented by the two curved lines, green and red.
Apparently now, we see bitcoin rise much earlier, with much more power than many (me including), expected only a few months ago.
I always thought we'd see 100k by 2022, or something like that.
But what, if BTC wants to go back to the exponential channel, because now mainstream adoption picks up steam?
Well, then BTC would continue to 60k this year and test the red sqrt resistance line.
It would fail at first, and consolidate and correct for a few months. But then at second try, it would succeed and go berserk, even higher than McAffee proclaimed, to 2 million instead of 1 million.
But ok, what is a factor of 2 for bitcoin, right? Nothing ! We are talking the same order of magnitude.
Now I know this in not realistic. I don't believe there is a high chance of this happening. BUT, it is an interesting exercise and thought experiment.
Even though very unlikely, it is not impossible.
Some factors which could help achieve the insane McAffee price point in late 2020 are:
1. Large scale economic problems, pushing huge amounts of money to Gold and Bitcoin as a hedge
2. ETF approval
3. Mainstream adoption going much faster than we thought, transaction volume suddenly pickung up pace, due to lightning network. Bitcoin payments becoming widespread available.
4. Large institutional investors pouring giant amounts of money into bitcoin because of ETF
5. Billionaires around the world get a strong FOMO, seeing bitcoin rise, economy going to shit, wanting to protect their money, and hedging into Bitcoin
6. Strong USD devaluation
So there. These are the circumstances, which if all were to occur, could make the price drive up so high.
AGAIN: This is unlikely, but NOT impossible.
Now, for shits and giggles, let's just ponder the possibility of a bitcoin hyper-adoption suddenly taking place until 2020, in order to reach McAffee's famous 1 million prediction.
How would the growth pattern and the TA-justification for such a move look?
I tried to draw it. The logic behind it, from a pure TA perspective is, that bitcoin was in a steep exponential channel from 2011-2013 (before in an even steeper one).
Now, after that, bitcoin went into the slower squareroot-function channel, which in the logarithmic chart, is represented by the two curved lines, green and red.
Apparently now, we see bitcoin rise much earlier, with much more power than many (me including), expected only a few months ago.
I always thought we'd see 100k by 2022, or something like that.
But what, if BTC wants to go back to the exponential channel, because now mainstream adoption picks up steam?
Well, then BTC would continue to 60k this year and test the red sqrt resistance line.
It would fail at first, and consolidate and correct for a few months. But then at second try, it would succeed and go berserk, even higher than McAffee proclaimed, to 2 million instead of 1 million.
But ok, what is a factor of 2 for bitcoin, right? Nothing ! We are talking the same order of magnitude.
Now I know this in not realistic. I don't believe there is a high chance of this happening. BUT, it is an interesting exercise and thought experiment.
Even though very unlikely, it is not impossible.
Some factors which could help achieve the insane McAffee price point in late 2020 are:
1. Large scale economic problems, pushing huge amounts of money to Gold and Bitcoin as a hedge
2. ETF approval
3. Mainstream adoption going much faster than we thought, transaction volume suddenly pickung up pace, due to lightning network. Bitcoin payments becoming widespread available.
4. Large institutional investors pouring giant amounts of money into bitcoin because of ETF
5. Billionaires around the world get a strong FOMO, seeing bitcoin rise, economy going to shit, wanting to protect their money, and hedging into Bitcoin
6. Strong USD devaluation
So there. These are the circumstances, which if all were to occur, could make the price drive up so high.
AGAIN: This is unlikely, but NOT impossible.
Comment:
I forgot to add that the 20k price late 2017 was a first retest of the old exponential channel.