"Bitcoin Log Growth Curves" indicates $3 M BTC in 2029
Quantadelic's "Bitcoin Log Growth Curves" indicator on Trading View has depicted cycle tops for Bitcoin in the past and points to certain prices in the future (BLX prices):
Low Oct 2010 $0.01
(1) Jun 2011 $31.90 3190 fold Top of the Curves
(2) Nov 2011 $2.01 -93.7% Bottom of the Curves
(3) Nov 2013 $1177.19 585.7 fold Top of the Curves
(4) Jan 2015 $163.88 -86.1% Near Bottom of the Curves
I (5) Dec 2017 $19764.51 120.6 fold Top of the Curves
II Dec 2018 $3148.33 -84.1% Near Bottom of the Curves
(1) Sep 2021 About $125,000 39.7 fold Top of the Curves
(2) Sep 2022 About $36000 -71.2% Near Bottom of the Curves
(3) Jul 2025 About $675,000 18.8 fold Top of the Curves
(4) Jul 2026 About $458000 -32.2% Near Bottom of the Curves
III (5) May 2029 About $3,000,000 6.6 fold Top of the Curves
Notice at every intermediate wave (1), (3), or (5), Bitcoin hits the top of the log growth curves
Notice at every intermediate wave (2) or (4), Bitcoin hits near the bottom of the log growth curves.
Notice the number of fold Bitcoin achieves from the prior low is going down in value over time; thus it gradually gets less volatile.
Notice the drop from the previous high in percentage terms gets less in value over time; thus it gradually gets less volatile.
Can Bitcoin go over the top of curves in this cycle? It can but it hasn't appreciably in the past. If it does, then that's the supercycle term Dan Held has popularized in the last few months.
Can Bitcoin go below the bottom of the curves? It did in Mar 2020 when the COVID pandemic affected all markets.
Will Bitcoin go over $1 M? Yes, but it won't be until 2029 if it continues to follow its 4 year cycle and continues to hit the top of the curves at each intermediate cycle high.
And why is Bitcoin trying to form a bottom in the $30K to $40K region now? I think because this region is probably where it will go near the end of next year after this cycle tops this year.
Low Oct 2010 $0.01
(1) Jun 2011 $31.90 3190 fold Top of the Curves
(2) Nov 2011 $2.01 -93.7% Bottom of the Curves
(3) Nov 2013 $1177.19 585.7 fold Top of the Curves
(4) Jan 2015 $163.88 -86.1% Near Bottom of the Curves
I (5) Dec 2017 $19764.51 120.6 fold Top of the Curves
II Dec 2018 $3148.33 -84.1% Near Bottom of the Curves
(1) Sep 2021 About $125,000 39.7 fold Top of the Curves
(2) Sep 2022 About $36000 -71.2% Near Bottom of the Curves
(3) Jul 2025 About $675,000 18.8 fold Top of the Curves
(4) Jul 2026 About $458000 -32.2% Near Bottom of the Curves
III (5) May 2029 About $3,000,000 6.6 fold Top of the Curves
Notice at every intermediate wave (1), (3), or (5), Bitcoin hits the top of the log growth curves
Notice at every intermediate wave (2) or (4), Bitcoin hits near the bottom of the log growth curves.
Notice the number of fold Bitcoin achieves from the prior low is going down in value over time; thus it gradually gets less volatile.
Notice the drop from the previous high in percentage terms gets less in value over time; thus it gradually gets less volatile.
Can Bitcoin go over the top of curves in this cycle? It can but it hasn't appreciably in the past. If it does, then that's the supercycle term Dan Held has popularized in the last few months.
Can Bitcoin go below the bottom of the curves? It did in Mar 2020 when the COVID pandemic affected all markets.
Will Bitcoin go over $1 M? Yes, but it won't be until 2029 if it continues to follow its 4 year cycle and continues to hit the top of the curves at each intermediate cycle high.
And why is Bitcoin trying to form a bottom in the $30K to $40K region now? I think because this region is probably where it will go near the end of next year after this cycle tops this year.
Comment:
Tops and Bottoms of the curves are hit at primary waves not intermediate cycle waves. Intermediate waves are also shown that make up the primary waves that are circled.