₿ottom Line: Searching for a low.
Outlook: Until ₿itcoin can recover above $41294.95, it continues at risk of new lows for wave (4).
Analysis
The decline to $28915.01 earlier in the last week was in line with the idea the fourth wave correction from the all-time high had not ended. While the low of June 22 tagged earlier cited support in the $28000 range, a recovery above $41294.95 would be required to rule out further lows.
The move back into the $36000.00 range today remains countable as part of a corrective retracement still within wave (v) of ((c)).
Remember: Breaking above $41294.95 is required to consider the case for an end to the wave 4 correction.
Target 4Q > ABOVE 100k
I am not ₿earish long-term. I am a ₿ull of ₿ulls.
Outlook: Until ₿itcoin can recover above $41294.95, it continues at risk of new lows for wave (4).
Analysis
The decline to $28915.01 earlier in the last week was in line with the idea the fourth wave correction from the all-time high had not ended. While the low of June 22 tagged earlier cited support in the $28000 range, a recovery above $41294.95 would be required to rule out further lows.
The move back into the $36000.00 range today remains countable as part of a corrective retracement still within wave (v) of ((c)).
Remember: Breaking above $41294.95 is required to consider the case for an end to the wave 4 correction.
Target 4Q > ABOVE 100k
I am not ₿earish long-term. I am a ₿ull of ₿ulls.
Comment:
Bottom Line: Searching for a low, or possibly having found it.
Outlook: Until #₿itcoin can recover above $41294.95, it continues at risk of new lows for wave (4).
Analysis: As the chart above suggests, we're open to a bullish count while ₿itcoin doesn't violate the $30173 key level. A recovery above the $36590.58 high would open the door to this possibility. The bearish scenario holds sway while ₿itcoin remains contained beneath $36590.58, but a move above this level opens the door to the bullish scenario. A break below $30173 would otherwise keep the scenario bearish.
Bottom Line: Searching for a low, or possibly having found it.
Outlook: Until #₿itcoin can recover above $41294.95, it continues at risk of new lows for wave (4).
Analysis: As the chart above suggests, we're open to a bullish count while ₿itcoin doesn't violate the $30173 key level. A recovery above the $36590.58 high would open the door to this possibility. The bearish scenario holds sway while ₿itcoin remains contained beneath $36590.58, but a move above this level opens the door to the bullish scenario. A break below $30173 would otherwise keep the scenario bearish.
Comment:
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Disclaimer: Prices can vary between ₿itcoin exchanges. Consequently, there may be differences in our chart prices due to different data sets. The analysis information is for reference only and does not constitute an investment recommendation. We recommend that people avoid trading on unproven exchanges vulnerable to hacking and theft.
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Disclaimer: Prices can vary between ₿itcoin exchanges. Consequently, there may be differences in our chart prices due to different data sets. The analysis information is for reference only and does not constitute an investment recommendation. We recommend that people avoid trading on unproven exchanges vulnerable to hacking and theft.
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Trade active:
Bottom Line: Still to determine if the current breakout is only a bear rally or the sign of a major bottom.
Outlook: ₿itcoin has advanced impulsively off its $29302 low of July 20. While it could suggest wave (4) bottomed, it may only represent a bear rally within a still incomplete and larger correction.
NOTE: $41294.95 is the key level separating the two interpretations.
Bottom Line: Still to determine if the current breakout is only a bear rally or the sign of a major bottom.
Outlook: ₿itcoin has advanced impulsively off its $29302 low of July 20. While it could suggest wave (4) bottomed, it may only represent a bear rally within a still incomplete and larger correction.
NOTE: $41294.95 is the key level separating the two interpretations.
Comment:
The strong upside advance we have seen over the last few hours is exactly the type of price action we expect to see in a third-of-third wave. Having tagged the 1.618 extension target at $41038, the next potential target on our radar is at $50536, the 2.618 extension of wave i.
The strong upside advance we have seen over the last few hours is exactly the type of price action we expect to see in a third-of-third wave. Having tagged the 1.618 extension target at $41038, the next potential target on our radar is at $50536, the 2.618 extension of wave i.
Comment:
Analysis
A five-wave pattern has emerged from the $29302 low of July 20, which at a minimum suggests a bullish change of trend has occurred. A break or non-break of $41294.95 will help us determine whether it represents only a bear rally or the possible end of the wave (4) correction.
Analysis
A five-wave pattern has emerged from the $29302 low of July 20, which at a minimum suggests a bullish change of trend has occurred. A break or non-break of $41294.95 will help us determine whether it represents only a bear rally or the possible end of the wave (4) correction.
Comment:
Bottom Line: A bear rally or better may be underway against $29302.
Analysis: BTC's 16% run-up in the last 24 hours and 34% rise since the July 20 low is the price action we expected to see following weeks of deep pessimism that had captured the market. That is the contrarian nature of sentiment and is why it's worth following. The wave structure will ultimately determine whether a bear rally or something more bullish is unfolding.
Bottom Line: A bear rally or better may be underway against $29302.
Analysis: BTC's 16% run-up in the last 24 hours and 34% rise since the July 20 low is the price action we expected to see following weeks of deep pessimism that had captured the market. That is the contrarian nature of sentiment and is why it's worth following. The wave structure will ultimately determine whether a bear rally or something more bullish is unfolding.
Trade active
Comment:
With the print above 49390, it suggests wave ii is likely complete at 48158, and BTC is subdividing higher in wave iii. If a third-of-third is in progress, we expect to see BTC remain above 48158 and move swiftly higher in five waves over the coming sessions to complete an impulse wave iii.
It will require a print below 48158 to signal a flat is unfolding for wave ii, as per the alternate.
With the print above 49390, it suggests wave ii is likely complete at 48158, and BTC is subdividing higher in wave iii. If a third-of-third is in progress, we expect to see BTC remain above 48158 and move swiftly higher in five waves over the coming sessions to complete an impulse wave iii.
It will require a print below 48158 to signal a flat is unfolding for wave ii, as per the alternate.
Comment:
Bottom Line: Higher against 43935
Outlook: Anticipating a push into the 53 - 58k range against 43935 with an ideal target at 58827.
Bottom Line: Higher against 43935
Outlook: Anticipating a push into the 53 - 58k range against 43935 with an ideal target at 58827.
Comment:
Analysis: ₿itcoin has broken through 50000 today, in line with expectations. Price has pulled back a bit, which isn't unusual when a key psychological price level is hit. The pullback wouldn't upset the idea that a third wave rally is in its early stages as long as 43935.96 isn't violated. A break would otherwise suggest a short-term correction was still in progress.
Trade active:
Higher against 43935
Outlook: A temporary correction is in progress.
Analysis: In regards to the pullback from the new recovery high at 50500, yesterday's update stated
"The pullback wouldn't upset the idea that a third wave rally is in its early stages as long as 48158 isn't violated. A break would otherwise suggest a short-term correction was still in progress."
With that level having been violated in today's trading, we are considering wave ii of (iii) incomplete as illustrated below. Support levels lie in the 46-47000 range, but key to count is that 43935 not be violated.
If wave iii is underway ₿itcoin must turn higher from current levels. Otherwise, a larger wave ii might be unfolding. Wave ((C)) of ii from 50500 would continue to five waves. Wave ii will retrace 38.2% of wave i at 47306 and 61.8% of that rally at 46018.
Higher against 43935
Outlook: A temporary correction is in progress.
Analysis: In regards to the pullback from the new recovery high at 50500, yesterday's update stated
"The pullback wouldn't upset the idea that a third wave rally is in its early stages as long as 48158 isn't violated. A break would otherwise suggest a short-term correction was still in progress."
With that level having been violated in today's trading, we are considering wave ii of (iii) incomplete as illustrated below. Support levels lie in the 46-47000 range, but key to count is that 43935 not be violated.
If wave iii is underway ₿itcoin must turn higher from current levels. Otherwise, a larger wave ii might be unfolding. Wave ((C)) of ii from 50500 would continue to five waves. Wave ii will retrace 38.2% of wave i at 47306 and 61.8% of that rally at 46018.
Comment:
Disclaimer: Prices can vary between ₿itcoin exchanges. Consequently, there may be differences in our chart prices due to different data sets. The analysis information is for reference only and does not constitute an investment recommendation. We recommend that people avoid trading on unproven exchanges vulnerable to hacking and theft.
Trade active:
Bottom Line: A third wave advance should start not much if any beneath the low on the day.
Analysis: Wave ((C)) of the proposed expanded flat is in five waves and wave ii has retraced a bit more than 38.2% of wave i.
The wave ii of (iii) pullback discussed yesterday appears to have found a low at 47139, which was in line with the cited support zone in the 46-47000 range.
The structure and depth of the setback are consistent with a correction.
The impulsive break above the previous fourth wave resistance suggests five waves are in place for wave ((C)) of ii and that the correction has ended.
We'll now want to see five waves form against the 47130 low to both signal the change of trend, watching to see if BTC can recover above the 50500 high to signal the wave iii of (iii) advance has gotten underway.
Bottom Line: A third wave advance should start not much if any beneath the low on the day.
Analysis: Wave ((C)) of the proposed expanded flat is in five waves and wave ii has retraced a bit more than 38.2% of wave i.
The wave ii of (iii) pullback discussed yesterday appears to have found a low at 47139, which was in line with the cited support zone in the 46-47000 range.
The structure and depth of the setback are consistent with a correction.
The impulsive break above the previous fourth wave resistance suggests five waves are in place for wave ((C)) of ii and that the correction has ended.
We'll now want to see five waves form against the 47130 low to both signal the change of trend, watching to see if BTC can recover above the 50500 high to signal the wave iii of (iii) advance has gotten underway.
Trade active
Comment:
Bottom Line: Higher against 43935.
Outlook: Favoring higher within a third-of-a-third wave rally. 58827 represents a potential target for that advance. Key support is raised to 46525 - 47205.
Analysis: Today's rally above 48900 favors the recent setback that has likely ended. An advance above 49615 would bolster the bullish outlook and set up a challenge for Bitcoin to successfully break the 50500 high.
Bottom Line: Higher against 43935.
Outlook: Favoring higher within a third-of-a-third wave rally. 58827 represents a potential target for that advance. Key support is raised to 46525 - 47205.
Analysis: Today's rally above 48900 favors the recent setback that has likely ended. An advance above 49615 would bolster the bullish outlook and set up a challenge for Bitcoin to successfully break the 50500 high.
Trade active
Trade active:
Bottom Line: Correcting within wave 2 of (5).
Analysis
We're allowing for the possibility the recent wave 2 of (5) correction ended at 39656.42 earlier this last week. Confirming price action would ultimately come with BTC's ability to exceed 48791.96. A move above here would rule out a continuing correction in wave 2.
Bottom Line: Correcting within wave 2 of (5).
Analysis
We're allowing for the possibility the recent wave 2 of (5) correction ended at 39656.42 earlier this last week. Confirming price action would ultimately come with BTC's ability to exceed 48791.96. A move above here would rule out a continuing correction in wave 2.
Trade active:
Bottom Line: Watching for evidence of a wave 2 bottom.
Outlook: It's possible to consider the wave 2 low in place at 39656.42. However, we'll want to see BTC exceeding the 48791.96 key level in a five-wave pattern to bolster the case. A larger double zigzag correction for wave 2 can't be ruled out unless BTC can exceed this key level.
Analysis: The current recovery is looking increasingly like a corrective retracement, which cautions us not to be too bullish until we see the corroborating price action. The Alternate double zigzag count for wave 2 remains very much under consideration unless we see stronger five-wave advances that aren't easily sold into. Pullbacks should also be corrective.
Bottom Line: Watching for evidence of a wave 2 bottom.
Outlook: It's possible to consider the wave 2 low in place at 39656.42. However, we'll want to see BTC exceeding the 48791.96 key level in a five-wave pattern to bolster the case. A larger double zigzag correction for wave 2 can't be ruled out unless BTC can exceed this key level.
Analysis: The current recovery is looking increasingly like a corrective retracement, which cautions us not to be too bullish until we see the corroborating price action. The Alternate double zigzag count for wave 2 remains very much under consideration unless we see stronger five-wave advances that aren't easily sold into. Pullbacks should also be corrective.
Comment:
Bottom Line: The wave 2 bottom is likely in.
Outlook: Favoring the wave 2 low is in place at $39656.42, but still want to see BTC exceeding the $48791.96 key level to bolster confidence.
Analysis: Today's breakout strongly favors the wave 2 bottom was made at $39656.42, and we are keeping the focus on the upside against that level. For confidence sake, there's still one hurdle we want to see it exceed - the key level at $48791.96.
Bottom Line: The wave 2 bottom is likely in.
Outlook: Favoring the wave 2 low is in place at $39656.42, but still want to see BTC exceeding the $48791.96 key level to bolster confidence.
Analysis: Today's breakout strongly favors the wave 2 bottom was made at $39656.42, and we are keeping the focus on the upside against that level. For confidence sake, there's still one hurdle we want to see it exceed - the key level at $48791.96.
Comment:
Bottom Line: The wave 2 bottom is likely in.
Outlook: Favoring the wave 2 low is in place at $39656.42 and a move to break $52915.84, the wave 1 high is now underway.
Analysis: Yesterday's pullback is behind us, with BTC reaching new recovery highs and trending higher. As the chart above indicates, the wave labels have been raised by one degree, although we're still favoring a third wave advance is in progress. The 51000-54000 range is a target area to complete wave (iii). We'll see if we can fine tune the estimates going forward.
Bottom Line: The wave 2 bottom is likely in.
Outlook: Favoring the wave 2 low is in place at $39656.42 and a move to break $52915.84, the wave 1 high is now underway.
Analysis: Yesterday's pullback is behind us, with BTC reaching new recovery highs and trending higher. As the chart above indicates, the wave labels have been raised by one degree, although we're still favoring a third wave advance is in progress. The 51000-54000 range is a target area to complete wave (iii). We'll see if we can fine tune the estimates going forward.
Order cancelled
Trade closed manually
Comment:
BULL MARKET IS OVER!!
Comment:
Analysis
The market appears somewhat disinterested and so, a further break of the 39656.42 low of September 21 favors the bear market outlook for BITCOIN. Considering Primary wave ((A)) to now be underway. Which would argue a larger bear market correction continues to unfold.
The market appears somewhat disinterested and so, a further break of the 39656.42 low of September 21 favors the bear market outlook for BITCOIN. Considering Primary wave ((A)) to now be underway. Which would argue a larger bear market correction continues to unfold.
What is the Wyckoff Method?