July 2021 Update: When Next Alt Season?
This is an update on my previous idea. An ascending wedge is playing out which typically breaks above the upper line of resistance to reach the 1.23 Fibonacci level at the very least. If this happens, it would honor both classical TA, as well as past chart patterns on BTC.D. RSI should also hit 70 like it has done several times in the past. This seems to be the most reasonable plan.
The only change is this: I am willing to consider a scenario where there is a case to start scaling into alts as the dominance hits the 20 week MA (about 49%-50%). IF (this is a big if) these things happen:
1. ETH and major DeFi show reversal patterns on the 12h charts AND
2. BTC continues to be neutral to bullish.
If either one of this stops being true, I will wait for the ascending triangle to play out before scaling in.
And yes: SCALE IN. don’t buy your bags all at once. Its Ok buying little by little on the way up or down, provided you sell at your intended targets unemotionally.
Here is a bonus rant following some of the comments in my previous idea:
PLEASE for the love of god DYOR before putting your money in shitcoins. Alts DO NOT perform well when BTC is bearish. Yes you can shill me Link or XTZ and show me charts of how well some coins performed during the wider bear market but those are the exceptions and NOT the norm. There are too many coins and picking winners is difficult. Its much easier to buy alts before an alt season where you do not need to be picky. Buy anything that you like. Even if you miss the 10xes you will still 2-3x on your coin that you think isn’t pumping to your liking. The wise thing to do in that case is to book profits and sit back. This is trivial to people who have been in this space for a long time. Even if you are new, the May crash should have made things very clear. The drastic changes in sentiment and price action WILL REPEAT like it always has. Learn this early and you will survive downturns. Most people who stick around do so not because they made a shit ton of money. They stick around because they SURVIVED.
The only change is this: I am willing to consider a scenario where there is a case to start scaling into alts as the dominance hits the 20 week MA (about 49%-50%). IF (this is a big if) these things happen:
1. ETH and major DeFi show reversal patterns on the 12h charts AND
2. BTC continues to be neutral to bullish.
If either one of this stops being true, I will wait for the ascending triangle to play out before scaling in.
And yes: SCALE IN. don’t buy your bags all at once. Its Ok buying little by little on the way up or down, provided you sell at your intended targets unemotionally.
Here is a bonus rant following some of the comments in my previous idea:
PLEASE for the love of god DYOR before putting your money in shitcoins. Alts DO NOT perform well when BTC is bearish. Yes you can shill me Link or XTZ and show me charts of how well some coins performed during the wider bear market but those are the exceptions and NOT the norm. There are too many coins and picking winners is difficult. Its much easier to buy alts before an alt season where you do not need to be picky. Buy anything that you like. Even if you miss the 10xes you will still 2-3x on your coin that you think isn’t pumping to your liking. The wise thing to do in that case is to book profits and sit back. This is trivial to people who have been in this space for a long time. Even if you are new, the May crash should have made things very clear. The drastic changes in sentiment and price action WILL REPEAT like it always has. Learn this early and you will survive downturns. Most people who stick around do so not because they made a shit ton of money. They stick around because they SURVIVED.
