Based on my previous idea which I just updated too, BTC was going to hit 42k sooner than later and the picture wasn't great. The fractal played out nicely and the current correction has been pretty large, potentially even the beginning of a bear market. However in my opinion there is a lot of support in the 38-42k zone which hasn't been fully retested yet. On several exchanges we haven't tested the previous ATH of 42k, but got very close. Now the fractal indicates consolidation, another leg lower and then bottom.
A bottom that could lead to 53k before we can tell whether we go up or down. There are tons of negatives for BTC and a lot fewer negatives for alts, but the truth is that I can't tell whether we are in bear market or not... not yet. There have been a few indicators that showed that could have potentially been the top, but it seems very weird based on previous cycles for this to really be the top. Maybe Bitcoin is done as other altcoins are stealing the show like Ethereum, Cardano and so on... along with the fact that there are too many longs, Bitcoin is attacked left and right from the media, and Elon definitely doesn't help.
Now on the CME it is much clearer what has happened. We got up too fast, we never had proper corrections, many weird moves happened during the weekends and we had tons of double bottoms so there were many longs that were never shaken out. Once trading started on CME today the market tanked after getting rejected at the double bottom (seriously 3 double bottoms without an SFP - meaning the second low wasn't lower than the first one at the same level). Link with the previous bounce after a very similar move, the double gap at 60k was filled very nicely and then we went lower. A similar level right now is 53k, but will probably come once we retested the breakout zone on CME and hit the S3 monthly and S3 weekly, which are slightly below the 200 DMA. That would be the perfect shakeout and we'd hit such strong support that the market could fly up to 53k to fill what is like a 'CME gap'. Currently the 46-49k zone is resistance and the gap might be filled soon, but I doubt the correction is fully over yet. BTC is in a no trade zone for me at 46 as I either want to go long lower or short higher (long 38-42k short 53-55k)
A bottom that could lead to 53k before we can tell whether we go up or down. There are tons of negatives for BTC and a lot fewer negatives for alts, but the truth is that I can't tell whether we are in bear market or not... not yet. There have been a few indicators that showed that could have potentially been the top, but it seems very weird based on previous cycles for this to really be the top. Maybe Bitcoin is done as other altcoins are stealing the show like Ethereum, Cardano and so on... along with the fact that there are too many longs, Bitcoin is attacked left and right from the media, and Elon definitely doesn't help.
Now on the CME it is much clearer what has happened. We got up too fast, we never had proper corrections, many weird moves happened during the weekends and we had tons of double bottoms so there were many longs that were never shaken out. Once trading started on CME today the market tanked after getting rejected at the double bottom (seriously 3 double bottoms without an SFP - meaning the second low wasn't lower than the first one at the same level). Link with the previous bounce after a very similar move, the double gap at 60k was filled very nicely and then we went lower. A similar level right now is 53k, but will probably come once we retested the breakout zone on CME and hit the S3 monthly and S3 weekly, which are slightly below the 200 DMA. That would be the perfect shakeout and we'd hit such strong support that the market could fly up to 53k to fill what is like a 'CME gap'. Currently the 46-49k zone is resistance and the gap might be filled soon, but I doubt the correction is fully over yet. BTC is in a no trade zone for me at 46 as I either want to go long lower or short higher (long 38-42k short 53-55k)
