Bitcoin has been in a really bad spot over the last few days and the situation seems pretty tough. Alts have been stealing the show and money is flowing out of Bitcoin and into Alts. Yes the Tesla situation played a role, as well as the volatility / correction is stocks... but Bitcoin was already not in a healthy spot given how fast it went up. In my opinion the current 'goal' is to get into the area that was never retested after the Tesla pump + getting to the 200 DMA. There are some important indicators and models showing support higher than 42k, but in terms of Technical analysis there are something that tell me we need to break the 42-43k bottom and create a little panic before we bottom.
How we get there is different story, because after such a strong dip a bounce is expected. Like with the double CME gap at 60k, the market bounced after the previous crash and then fell lower again. The fractal sits perfectly on the price action (was one I saved yesterday). It disagrees with me as to what comes first (upside or downside), but agrees on the 42k bottom. There are a lot of things that I like in that level and why I think it would be the bottom (tracking various models and previous cycles), however 38-40 would literally be the perfect bottom and also have a high chance of being hit. 38k is rather extreme, but 40k has a lot of confluence too.
The CME chart shows a slightly different picture for the spot charts, because there is a key double bottom at the first line which will most likely be broken. On CME some price action between 39 and 44k doesn't exist as it happened over some weekends, something that when we see it the price tends to go back into that area. For example we had that crazy little bottom recently at 47k, which was a weird double bottom on CME. Look where the price bottom after this dip. Right after it swept the low. In my opinion the crypto market hasn't topped, yet the only way to know is after we go from 38-42k. That will be the real test... There is a pretty high chance Bitcoin is done for a really long time especially if Ethereum surpasses the Market Cap of Bitcoin which is actually only 80-90% if we also include that there are 10% more lost coins in Bitcoin than in Ethereum.
Ethereum has tons of things going for it, so Ethereum having 2x the market cap of Bitcoin won't be surprising at all to me, however when the flippening is about to happen I do expect some resistance and a pullback for ETH. I've been a hardcore Bitcoin guy, but I am also a trader... And the truth is that the market doesn't care about what is best or what will be the best, but it cares about hype, pumpamentals and unicorns. So Ethereum will be the biggest bubble in history and the biggest collapse, but for Ethereum to collapse it first needs to grow so much that people will see why we need Bitcoin. Until then Ethereum seems flawless and Bitcoin like the worst asset ever. That's something to keep in mind, as we don't live in a perfect world and the best doesn't always win and people don't have perfect information. Also neither system is perfect and in race, yes some times the slow and steady wins, but until it wins the faster one is ahead.
The 100-300-400 Simple Moving Averages on the 12h chart are the same as 50-150-200 Daily Moving Averages
These are the other charts that I am talking about but aren't showing up for some reason in the idea:
s3.tradingview.com/s...shots/v/VD6QuJCV.png
s3.tradingview.com/s...shots/p/PMpdQvOt.png
How we get there is different story, because after such a strong dip a bounce is expected. Like with the double CME gap at 60k, the market bounced after the previous crash and then fell lower again. The fractal sits perfectly on the price action (was one I saved yesterday). It disagrees with me as to what comes first (upside or downside), but agrees on the 42k bottom. There are a lot of things that I like in that level and why I think it would be the bottom (tracking various models and previous cycles), however 38-40 would literally be the perfect bottom and also have a high chance of being hit. 38k is rather extreme, but 40k has a lot of confluence too.
The CME chart shows a slightly different picture for the spot charts, because there is a key double bottom at the first line which will most likely be broken. On CME some price action between 39 and 44k doesn't exist as it happened over some weekends, something that when we see it the price tends to go back into that area. For example we had that crazy little bottom recently at 47k, which was a weird double bottom on CME. Look where the price bottom after this dip. Right after it swept the low. In my opinion the crypto market hasn't topped, yet the only way to know is after we go from 38-42k. That will be the real test... There is a pretty high chance Bitcoin is done for a really long time especially if Ethereum surpasses the Market Cap of Bitcoin which is actually only 80-90% if we also include that there are 10% more lost coins in Bitcoin than in Ethereum.
Ethereum has tons of things going for it, so Ethereum having 2x the market cap of Bitcoin won't be surprising at all to me, however when the flippening is about to happen I do expect some resistance and a pullback for ETH. I've been a hardcore Bitcoin guy, but I am also a trader... And the truth is that the market doesn't care about what is best or what will be the best, but it cares about hype, pumpamentals and unicorns. So Ethereum will be the biggest bubble in history and the biggest collapse, but for Ethereum to collapse it first needs to grow so much that people will see why we need Bitcoin. Until then Ethereum seems flawless and Bitcoin like the worst asset ever. That's something to keep in mind, as we don't live in a perfect world and the best doesn't always win and people don't have perfect information. Also neither system is perfect and in race, yes some times the slow and steady wins, but until it wins the faster one is ahead.
The 100-300-400 Simple Moving Averages on the 12h chart are the same as 50-150-200 Daily Moving Averages
These are the other charts that I am talking about but aren't showing up for some reason in the idea:
s3.tradingview.com/s...shots/v/VD6QuJCV.png
s3.tradingview.com/s...shots/p/PMpdQvOt.png
That was the first initial spot for BTC to bounce and it actually had a nice bounce there. Elon is manipulating the market as best he can, so it isn't random that he mentioned that Tesla hasn't sold its BTC right after the biggest part of the correction was over.
www.okex.com/markets...-data/btc-usd-weekly