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Short

Bearcoin, 4H Gartley and Ending Diagonals.

OKCOIN:BTCCNY   Bitcoin / Chinese Yuan
Looks like bitcoin is about to get another big wave down, this should bring us under $200 within the coming days.

On this chart, you can see that we have a pretty nice bearish Gartley pattern (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gartley.asp). Along with 2 Elliott Wave Ending Diagonals, one is Wave C of a flat (red lines) which I believe to be either part of Wave E or Wave 2, the other is Wave v of C (yellow lines). This makes for a very bearish chart setup, along with the bearish divergences on the AO and AC on multiple time-frames. This is probably a great time to start opening up short positions against the trend to hold for the next few days.

Targets are difficult to make at this point, but the blue arrow shows a good target for the end of Wave 3, if it develops in such a way. Otherwise, we may have our first stop around 1200CNY for Wave 1.

The reason I am changing my count now is because Wave 1/D looks distinctly impulsive, so there is a chance instead of this being a 12H triangle, like my linked charts predicted, it could actually be a Triple Three Correction, ending at Wave C. Either way this is a very bearish set-up with a tight stop-loss. My strategy is to open shorts with stops set and go have fun for the next couple days while bitcoin bites the curb. Remember it helps to keep your eyes OFF the prize ;)

"Do your work, then step back, the only path to serenity" -Lao Tzu
grahvity
2 years ago
@4xForcaster would agree. He's calling this a potential Wolfe Wave and Bulkowski's pattern site would call this area 'the sweet spot'.
http://thepatternsite.com/WolfeWaveBear.html

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Intuit PRO grahvity
2 years ago
Awesome. His target seems kind of high but it's definitely something to keep in mind, I suppose the momentum will tell us how far this wants to go once it starts moving.
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grahvity Intuit
2 years ago
I should've included a link to his discussion. https://www.tradingview.com/v/W4GwjLu0/#tc160955
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Gravvi
2 years ago
Good analysis. Thanks for sharing:), I'm also bearish. good luck m8:)
+1 Reply
rubenthin PRO
2 years ago
Hello Scamcoins. I've been watching the rising wedge pattern play out similar to yours.
Strong support has been found here so far...do you think this breakout might be done?
I know yours predicts a much larger move.
Watching closely for any breakdown, but looking bullish right now to me:
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Intuit PRO rubenthin
2 years ago
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If anything, I would be opening more shorts here. As you can see on this chart there is:
1. 15m Bearish Div
2. Possible Leading Diagonal (Wave 1)
3. AB=1.5CD (Wave 2)
4. Possible Bearish Gartley (not ideal)
5. Wave 2 retraces ~50% of Wave 1

I am still holding my short from 262, no reason to close yet.
+1 Reply
Intuit PRO Intuit
2 years ago
Oh yea, forgot to mention the double head and shoulders. The smaller one is already complete, looks like the bigger (red) one could be completing soon.
+1 Reply
rubenthin PRO Intuit
2 years ago
Thanks a lot for this bigger picture...looks way more bearish in this perspective :-)
Many thanks
+1 Reply
rubenthin PRO Intuit
2 years ago
One thought though, the H&S appears to be in a 'continuation' scenario in your chart...its only a reversal pattern isn't? So potentially not valid here?
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Intuit PRO rubenthin
2 years ago
How exactly is it a continuation on my chart? We were going up and now we're going down. It's a reversal. If you're referring to the fact that its not completed yet (hasn't broken the neckline) it's just something to keep an eye on until it does.

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rubenthin PRO Intuit
2 years ago
Just because the run into it is downwards..i cant zoom in to see the values but there's a clear 5 wave impulse following your upward pink arrow...it peaks out and turns downward, then it hits the H&S....so to me, the H&S interrupts a downward run rather than capping off an upward one.
By this rational your second H&S must be very valid.
I'm just thinking out of box as i feel there is some big play going on to keep this price where it is...its held off 2 different retraces by my charts and still holding up...iffy.
Thanks again for your replies :-)
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Intuit PRO rubenthin
2 years ago
No problem.

The H&S is capping off the top of the impulse. Wave a/b of 5 makes up the left shoulder and Wave c of 5 makes up the head, and then Wave 1 of 1 make up the rest of the head and Wave 2 of 1 starts the right shoulder, and then you get Wave 3 of 1 for the actual break down from the right shoulder which makes sense because it should be the strongest wave. You could even redraw it so that the left shoulder is composed of the top of wave 3 instead of a of 5, but either way its the same result. The H&S is just one of many bearish signals.
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rubenthin PRO Intuit
2 years ago
Yes, this makes good sense.
Thanks Scamcoins
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Intuit PRO rubenthin
2 years ago
So you can see what I'm saying

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rubenthin PRO Intuit
2 years ago
Yep, even clearer with the wedge/diagonal
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rubenthin PRO Intuit
2 years ago
...curious mfi bounce on my chart here, i find ominous...bullish bounce upward off the uptrend.
Expected it to plough down through it, but it bounced:
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Intuit PRO rubenthin
2 years ago
Something like this could happen if we don't break down soon. Would most likely create a nice bearish divergence and open up a great short opportunity.

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rubenthin PRO Intuit
2 years ago
Nice work. Thanks a lot :-)
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Intuit PRO
2 years ago
UPDATE: Looks like we are done with Wave 1. Also it looks like Wave 1 is a Leading Diagonal, meaning we are about to get a huge wave down after this correction.

Here are possible targets for abc of Wave 2 and also for the subsequent Wave 3 if these targets are correct. I'd hedge shorts here and go long if you want to scalp this move.

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I appreciate all the likes and follows guys :)
+1 Reply
rubenthin PRO Intuit
2 years ago
Hi Scamcoins. Could you post that as a live chart by any chance?
Thanks a lot.
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Intuit PRO rubenthin
2 years ago
Bitcoin Wave 2 Correction Possible Targets. (AB=CD)
+1 Reply
rubenthin PRO Intuit
2 years ago
Thank you Sir :-)
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