Technical analysis update: Bitcoin (7th January 2022)

Bitcoin's recent drop to 40 938 USD indicates continuation of the bearish trend. This view is also supported by a bearish combination of fundamental and technical factors. During its recent drop BTCUSD broke below the key technical support at 41 967 USD; and, at the same time, it broke below the neckline of head and shoulders pattern. These two instances are very bearish for Bitcoin. We continue to maintain a bearish stance on the overall cryptocurrency market. Indeed, we expect selling pressure to be persistent which will result in Bitcoin moving lower from its current level. Our short-term price target for BTCUSD remains at 40 000 USD; and our medium-term price target is at 37 500 USD.

Illustration 1.01

Picture above shows the hourly chart of BTCUSD. It also shows a bearish breakout below the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern. We previously noted that this occurrence would be followed by heavy selling pressure.

Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI is very bearish; and we continue to await its crossover below the 30 points. Additionally, we expect this phenomenon to be accompanied by heavy selling pressure that will drag Bitcoin below the 40 000 USD price tag. MACD is also bearish. Stochastic reversed to the upside, however, it continues to oscillate in the bearish area. DM+ and DM- show bearish conditions in the market; and ADX strives to make another peak in tandem with our expectations. This indicates that the bearish trend is regaining strength. Overall, technical analysis on a daily time frame is very bearish and signals lower prices for Bitcoin.

Illustration 1.02

Picture above shows the daily RSI of BTCUSD. We expect crossover below the 30 points as indicated by the yellow arrow.


Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD and Stochastic all remain bearish. DM+ and DM- show that same condition. ADX started to flatten from its previous decline.

Support and resistance
Short-term support can be found at 41 967 USD. Support 1 sits at 39 573 USD and Support 2 lies at 37 300 USD. Major support level sits at 28 600 USD. Short-term resistance lies at 45 478 USD. Resistance 1 lies at 48 834 USD and Resistance 2 sits at 52 956 USD.

(If you want to understand how we got to this conclusion, please read attached articles from 16th November 2021, 13th December 2021 and 5th January 2022)
Please feel free to express your own ideas and thoughts in the comment section.

DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering trade.

Trade active:

Daily time frame reached oversold conditions. It is likely that price will bounce higher from its current levels towards its 10-day SMA. We will observe whether this price rise occurs and then we will reasses situation.

Trade closed: target reached:

Our short-term price target of 40 000 USD has been reached today.