The breakdown from 21EMA was pretty likely to occur if the pattern decided to drop south, as the was moving just below the support at the floor (9300$).
So what’s next on the TA of Bitcoin? Macrostructure broken?
No, even if Bitcoin decides to make a drop towards $5,000 or $6,000, this could great a Higher Low and new trend, which is basically upwards.
And let’s face the facts still, Bitcoin rallied from $3,200 towards $14,000 in a matter of months and now people complain about $8,200, while this is actually a probable chance of buying ‘cheap’ Bitcoin for the upcoming market, which seems quite likely with the halving coming up & potential and more and more adoption taking place of crypto in general.
Aside from that, the 100-Week MA is providing support for now and Bitcoin is basically stuck in a range between several levels.
Above us the 200-Day MA and are acting as resistance right now, while below us the 100-Week MA and the horizontal orderblock are providing support for now. Is this a bad case? No, it could look like a beartrap here in which we’re breaking out upwards, but for now some accumulation seems likely to occur.
Also, comparable to the beginning of 2016, a nice could become in play, which would give the trend for the potential upwards bull market.
In that sense. The same test has been done in the 2016 start of the bull market (Beginning) and I feel we’re close to the same point with the market right now (comparing to the euphoria phase in 2017 feels a bit silly).
In that way, after that bottom in 2016 the altcoins really started to fire off with movements and the same is occurring right now (for example ETH is up 30% in ETH/BTC pair, XRP / XLM and other coins are making big movements and are looking eager for continuation upwards).
From that perspective I believe that these chances are for buy the dip approaches and won’t likely give you many of these opportunities back again.
In the scenario the market is not able to break above $8,800 (or $9,200) and then I’m watching lower levels for potential support. Levels to look for are; $7,400, $6,500 and $5,000 zone (based on the weekly).
In the scenario the market is accumulating a bit more for a few weeks here in which at least $7,400-7,500 has to hold for support, eventually ending up in a breakout upwards out of the and above the 200-Day MA and back again. If that happens with , likely people are looking for shorts at $9,300 and a blast through wouldn’t surprise me, targeting the $11,000 levels.
When the majority expects one thing, expect the unexpected.