In the first cycle, after the ATL,
> BTC took 532 days to break above it’s previous ATH.
> In the second cycle, it’s taken 546 days to break above its previous ATH.
> If history repeats itself, we could see a new ATH around 385 days from today, possibly by December

> First Halving: July 9, 2016
546 days of the bull market!
> Second Halving: May 11, 2020
546 Days of Bull Market after Halving 3
> Third Halving: April 25, 2024 (Expected)
Likely to last 528 days to 546 days of bull market.

After every halving, BTC always does a slight dump.
As we can see in the chart, BTC dumped after the Helving on 2016.
In 2020, BTC dumped before the Helving
IMO, this time too, we may see a slight dump, but the question is before or after?

Based on fractal analysis and chart data, it is anticipated that Bitcoin will reach its next bull market peak in September 2025. Subsequently, a shift back into the bear market is expected. Consequently, a decision to exit the market before September is considered, given that these projections are assumptions derived from fractal chart data.

I hope this graph clarifies how BTC's long-term growth dynamics work.
Only in a probabilistic approach, this concept is.

This chart is likely to help you make better trade decisions if you consider upvoting it.
I would also love to know your charts and views in the comment section.

Thank you


In anticipation of Bitcoin's fourth halving scheduled for April this year, let's delve into historical price patterns to assess potential heights Bitcoin might reach in the years 2024-2025 and when the anticipated start of the next bull run may occur.

Historical Analysis:

First Halving (28-11-2012):
A year before this event, Bitcoin was modestly priced at $2.48. As the market turned bullish, it climbed to $12.20 at the halving and continued its ascent. A year later, it peaked at $1,131.

Second Halving:
Before this halving, Bitcoin had fallen to $269 but rebounded to $650 by the time of the event. It soared for about a year post-halving, reaching an impressive $2,518.

Third Halving:
The cycle repeated, with Bitcoin dropping to $7,255 before the third halving. It then modestly rose to $8,762 at the halving and significantly surged to $56,615 a year after.

Analyzing the Fourth Halving:

The fourth halving is expected in April this year in the current cycle. A year before this date (April 2023), Bitcoin had an uptick to $31,000. This suggests a strong likelihood of a substantial rise post the fourth halving, potentially lasting until April-August 2025 and surpassing the previous high of $69,000.

Key Takeaway:

Bitcoin's price behavior exhibits remarkable consistency around each halving. It gradually begins to rise a year before the halving and continues for 12-16 months post-halving, reaching new peaks before entering a bearish phase.

Investment Strategy:

For long-term investors, understanding these patterns is crucial. The peak for this cycle might be between April - August 2025. It would be strategic to start exiting the market gradually at this point.


As we analyze historical patterns, Bitcoin's potential trajectory in the coming years appears promising, emphasizing the importance of strategic investment decisions in light of the upcoming halving event.

BTC has two potential paths, both leading to a $150k price target. My analysis, drawn from over 100 hours of scrutinizing onchain data, reveals key insights.

Currently, the net unrealized profits and losses hover around the 0.54 level, which historically marked a top in 2019. Although we haven't reached that threshold yet, a significant number of investors are already in profit, with the current value sitting at 0.49.

Moreover, the Puell multiple has reached 1.83, with some distance remaining until it hits the 2019 resistance level of 2.05. Meanwhile, BTC open interest is on the rise and stands at levels similar to the initial rally in 2021. Notably, unlike in 2021, open interest has been steadily increasing without experiencing a blow-off top, suggesting that such an event may still be in store.

I've outlined two scenarios:

Scenario A mirrors the pattern seen in 2019, where the supply in loss bottoms at 16% before rebounding. This could potentially lead to BTC's price dropping to the realized price line ( 23K ) within the next six months, followed by a shift to Scenario B.

Scenario B entails the supply in loss dropping to 3% over the next six months. In this scenario, BTC would likely embark on a significant bull run, potentially reaching the $150k mark.

I believe Scenario B is more plausible, considering that new capital has yet to flood the market, and we haven't witnessed an open interest blow-off top. Therefore, it's advisable to exercise patience and refrain from selling your entire portfolio in hopes of buying back at lower prices. As history shows, the market often surprises everyone.



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