The_black_swan

Bitcoin "dead cat" is a very bouncy one

Short
COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
We are currently seeing the third bounce in 2018 from the 5-6k levels.
I expect the current rally to make a lower high compared to March, which was itself a lower high compared to May
Maybe we go down after trying to reach the 200 dailyMA a second time around 8100.

On a pure technical point of view, the chart is totally bearish:
1. we have lower highs and lower lows since March
2. the 200 daily MA in blue just beat the bulls a 4th time in a few months
3. the volume on the blockchain keeps going down with the months
There is very little chance that these broad and typical market indicators are suggesting a bull run for soon.

On a fundamental perspective:
1. there still exists zero useful Dapp used by millions of people. The only Dapps that are currently in use are decentralized exchanges, used to trade unused Dapps
2. the SEC is rejecting ETFs one after the other, and this is how they are. They may accepts them in the long run, but they are slow to accept new things and Bitcoin is still so heavily manipulated that it would be very surprising that they accept it right now.
3. despite Bitcoin and crypto being a revolution, they have serious technical problems and in some cases, powerful enemies to deal with, before supposedly overtaking the world.
4. if institutions want to enter crypto, I trust them for entering the market at a time when one will the least expect it, that is when the prices will be very, very low and crypto looking like a dying broken dream.
5. The total altcoin Mcap is still up 150X since Jan 2016. Whoever thinks that altcoin prices are low at the moment, I suggest he keeps this number in mind. The simple fact that Dodgecoin Mcap is 300 000 000$, a project with no team ... and no project, is a standalone argument that this market needs a flush out.
We already had a monstrous bull run in 2016-17, there is very little chance that all these fundamental issues are suggesting another bull run for soon.

Stay prudent, do cost averaging, buy rather low, sell rather high, and be paaaatient :-----))
"Investing is a transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient"
Trade active: 1st update after the first leg down, rather powerful.
Btc passed straight through the 6600$ high volume node of the volume profile and went directly to the lower volume node at 6100$, were it is breathing now.

In my analysis above I said that the altcoin market needs a flush out. I did not try to time it, but it seems that this crash has just begun. Who knows how long it will last and how deep it will go, but we can already see the start of parabolic sell offs.

You might think, why sell my alts at such low prices? This would be so dumb to panic like this, it is so likely to come back up later. Well, I would not be so sure about that. This flush out we will likely see will redistribute the wealth. Projects that were all hyped in January might never recover this crash because better competitors came out or will come out (or simply because they failed). And there are so many new projects coming out, that ALL the alts are in danger during this flush out. Hence the panic. I am myself buying in 2-3 little alts as the prices go down, but I am not sure that it will come back up that much after, because the competition is intensifying a lot. It is very difficult to know which projects survive the crash and be at the top in 2020.

So my advice is to read things that contradict your views, be open to things that you don't want to see, because we are often blinded by our "hopes" and emotional attachments to some projects or ideas. This is crucial to take objective decisions.

As usual, I offer 1-to-1 tutorials about the fundamental indicators and overall method I use to swing trade, about how I choose the few alts that invest in for the mid to long term (now - 18 months), and any other question dealing with mid-term trading or investing.
Contact me on Skype: fx.hardy
Trade active: Here we go for a fourth bounce of the 5-6000$ level!
I expect it to be again even weaker than the previous one, with the very heavy resistance that is the 200 daily MA, which will be around 7777$ in a few days.

The deep fundamental issues for this bear market have not changed at all, and the people thinking that this is the beginning of a bull run are just driven by hope and geed. I am driven by fundamental indicators, real data, and not wishes.

The bullish scenario would be to break the 200 daily MA, I find this very unlikely.
Conclusion, I am "personally" scaling in my short position.

Cheers!
Trade active: Last update before a new forecast.
Exceptionally low volatility right now, probably a strong break out to come.
However, it might be that the trigger for this break will be the ETFs rejection on the 5th of November. Meaning that we would still have one more month of boring sideways between 5800 and 7000.
In my perspective, we still have ~80% chance of breaking down.

In conclusion, big profits are possible if you catch a 2-3000$ move on BTC/alts.
So plan everything now, be prudent in your plans (include worst-case scenario), and then stick to your plans!
Thanks to like, comment and share!
Cheers!

Comments

this is my strategy when investing, not trading. if you already bought altcoin and the price got lower, don't sell but hold under all circumstances.now, you can buy the same amount (or half the amount) you bought in $US when the price was high. for example, xrp was about $0.90 few months ago and now $0.45. let us say you spent $5000 when it was $0.90 and you are spending another $5000 when its $0.45. if it keep droping, wait untill it reaches $0.10 so you can spend another $5000. you have to be patient cos it could take 1-5 years for the bull market to take over. let us assume the price reaches $0.45 again and you spent $15000 in all these three scenarios. then you decide to sell. the outcome will be the first investment you lose half of it $2500 the second one you break even, the third one you make porofit 4.50x which means $22500 profit.
total spending $15000
total return $2500+$5000+$22500=$30000
net profit $30000-$15000= $15000
the reason i say to hold under all circumstances, is to minimize the risk. the time you sell and think you will buy it cheaper may never happen. of course, you can consider this option and get more coins but as i said there will be risk every time you sell.
by the way, all altcoins can lose %95 of their current values. no need to panic, patience is the key. whales and exchanges are surviving on the loss of majority of people. only few people can make it. history repeat itself, what is happening in the market now, happened few years ago, so its normal and the people who became super rich had to wait few years. I agree to what warren buffet said before
"Investing is a transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient"
+4 Reply
@N121212, Yes, it's called "cost averaging" and I wrote it in my conclusion.
+2 Reply
Good chart, capitulation is coming.
+3 Reply
Great analysis. Finally, someone clear headed!
+3 Reply
Thx for the chart. Nice read. Thought provoking.
"Investing is a transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient"
+3 Reply
""Investing is a transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient"" very well said. could have saved me many USD already...
+3 Reply
Nice summary Sun ;)
+3 Reply
Good stuff! I agree that it is quite unlikely that we break the 200 daily MA. Although the future is not set and from today's perspective, both outcomes are still possible, the probability of the second (we will break MA200) is simply much lower. It is much more likely that a larger downtrend will continue rather than it will abruptly change. Big market movements take time to develop. Have you guys thought about the real reason, why the total market capitalization has been decreasing for months and the bitcoin price has been moving up and down making lower highes? It's the market telling us that demand is drying up. At the same time notice how the last rally (July) spent less time away from support than the previous one (May), if the upcoming August/September mini-rally will be even shorter than the previous one it will be a sure sign that the breakdown is imminent.
So that's what I'm saying: it the upcoming mini-cat-bouncing-rally will be shorter than the previous one, then we will almost certainly break the 6k support shortly after this, with a vengeance!
+2 Reply
Agree with you



+2 Reply
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