COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
My August-September-October forecast played out rather good, and nothing as changed since then, in terms of fundamentals.
In terms of technicals, the violent Tether-related action on Bitfinex might just give a little bullishness for the next few days, but nothing more in my opinion.
The fundamentals will pick up eventually, THIS MARKET NEEDS A FLUSH.

I sum up my fundamental perspective again:
1. there still exists zero useful Dapp or platform used mainstream and making millions of revenues, except exchanges.
2. the SEC is rejecting all ETFs, and they might never accept any. Because cryptos' functioning and spirit is rather antithetical to controlled institutional markets.
3. the total altcoin market cap is still up 150X since Jan 2016. Altcoin prices can go much lower.
4. A little sum up of how I see the market cycle developing:
2016-17-18: the world discovers cryptos and how they MIGHT be a revolution: incredible bull run. Total altcoins market cap 1000X (Nov 2015 to Jan 2018).
--- You simply need to be a project "with potential" to make 100X.
2018-19-20: the world realizes the deep issues that cryptos and tokens have to deal with (technical issues, scams, no revenues): strong bear market.
--- You simply need to not be among the best projects (you get the idea) to see your price divided by 100. Total altcoins market cap divided by 10-50.
2020-21-22: companies using distributed blockchain tech of some sort, or ecosystems using tokens, start to show revenues and be more efficient than traditional companies.
--- You simply need to be a legit company with proved clients and revenue growth to make 100X.
However, tech is evolving so fast, that nobody knows what will emerge and dominate in the next 2-5 years. Maybe these companies, ecosystems, and the next crypto bull run will never happen, you always have to stay aware of this. With that said, I do have 20% of my capital in 2-3 tokens that I really like (very small market caps), because we never know. And I keep putting a little more, every time the price goes down.

On the technical point of view:
1. large descending triangle
2. volume keeps going down on the exchanges and on the various blockchains
So this forecast is similar to the last one , fading price, and break out downward, but who knows when this will be triggered...

In terms of trading:
I'm almost always shorting ETH to hedge the ERC20 tokens that I hold, and simply because I am bearish mid-term. If we have a little alt season, then my shorts on ETH will be in the red obviously, but the alts that I hold outperform so much ETH when they rally that I would totally be winning overall.
If we break the daily 200MA (7200) and the lower high of Sept (7300), then it's another story.
What an exciting time!
Trade closed: target reached: The decision of the market is clear, lots of people are painfully realizing that they were duped by bullish news or whatever made them think this market was healthy.

Also, the violence of this downward breakout make me think that we may be heading to a longer bear market than the 2 years rough idea that we had before. But let's see how the dust settles from this breakout first.

I will publish a new chart in a few days, and I will take the time to give a little overview on a project I like, Axipre (AXPR).
Comment: Hi everyone,

After the sharp drop of last year, I haven't had a scenario in mind for what followed, so I have not published anything since November. And that's good because I didn't expect such a strong reversal to 5k. I have now a scenario in mind for the next few months and the main reason for that is that we have now a range defined by the local bottom at 3200$ and the very strong resistance around 5800$. We should stay in this range for a while. So I'm bearish from 5800$.



Cheers everyone!

Comments

Finally somebody more realistic than all these hyped people that think we are breaking out straight into the bull market to millions..

Keep us updating with this good stuff.
Cheers!
+4 Reply
Looks very good so far. Today's drop exactly on schedule. I'm very curious to pursue this further. Thumbs up!
+3 Reply
@ReallyMe, Yes, looks like a strong market decision so far, that's very nice. Now, let's see how much it bounces back up.
+3 Reply
your update came right on time, like the contrarian view of yours, sounds far more logical than what it looks, very enlightening, looking forward to seeing more of your thoughts on other assets and of course you made me curious about those little tiny projects with good prospects of yours, would be fantastic to share some names to be considered, apart from all these thanks a million for the update, cheeeers from Iran
+3 Reply
@mojey, you serious !? His last two charts were completely wrong. I guess bears just hit his head hard.
+2 Reply
Blockshame cryptocurrency101
@cryptocurrency101, are YOU serious? No reason if bears hit him hard... if a trader is two times in a row wrong, does not mean that he is untrustable all the way... mistakes happen, and you cannot always predict the right direction. it happened to me also many times, but in the end i won. you always have to look on a longer timeframe. if he says the price will drop like in his chart, and tomorrow it will rise, for example, to 8K, he must not be wrong. because he predicts a lower price in about 2 months. in that time the price can also rise to an unknown level. only because a chart hits a target,doesnt mean that it wont drop again.

Im also bearish all the way till next year.

You sound like on of these thousends Mooner Boys. but in the end the less will win. only a few make money out of a market, not the most!
+3 Reply
The_black_swan cryptocurrency101
@cryptocurrency101, 1. This is trolling to say that my last two charts were "completely wrong". Also, I say that I am shorting ETH most of the time (in 2018), was that "completely wrong"? Tell me about it please.

2. As @cryptocurrency101 says, because of the fundamentals I describe, I am bearish, and I will keep posting such forecasts until the fundamental issues change.

In any case, the future will speak for us, and I am excited about it, and nothing in what I said deserves aggressive comments.
+1 Reply
The_black_swan cryptocurrency101
Reply
The_black_swan cryptocurrency101
@cryptocurrency101, I guess you have your answer now. I did not know when it would happen, but fundamentals had to pick up.
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nice analysis! I've got similar downward target:
+2 Reply
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