The_black_swan

The crash is coming...

Short
BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Timing is the hardest part, but one thing is almost sure, the crypto market is going to crash.

As I already mentioned in my previous forecasts, my method is:
1. extract data from the web that tell what is the general trend and how strong is this trend.
2. fit this trend into the chart with a little bit of TA and volume analysis.
3. use the volume profile tool to find the levels we will reach.

Have a look at my two previous forecasts (link below):
March-April, I called the bull trap to come.
May-June, I called the strong downtrend after the bull trap.
Now, I call the beginning of the crash.

I make 1-1 tutorials to explain my method, and give my fundamental indicators.
Contact me on Skype: fx.hardy or Discord: purplefx

The most important point is to think outside of the box, meaning, outside of the chart, using fundamental data and volume .
Several "Top Traders" on Tview post s*** forecasts because they almost only use TA.
They have no clue where the price is going, so they don't take any risk and they show you "all the possibilities", what a joke :---))

Let's hope that it plays out as expected!
Cheers everyone!
Trade active: Hi everyone, I just give a little update since my timing of the crash was obviously wrong.

On the technical point of view, it does look like we could be bottoming and starting a new bull run like the one of April. And that's why many people have hope and there is some support.

But the fundamentals are simply not here. The obvious ones being:
- There is too much pressure on this ecosystem at the moment.
- The volume on the blockchain AND the volume on the exchanges continues to go down. We are in a clean bear market.
And you know what, maybe the best argument for a crash to come soon, is all these people waiting for a new bull run, great time to create panic sell.

So, if we see 7-8K again, it's no big deal, just greater opportunity to short.
Comment: A last update before my August forecast.

The way I see it, is that it will form some sort of double top between 9k and 10k.

Then around the 10th, the SEC will likely delay their verdict, or just say NO, people will be disappointed, and a rather strong leg down will start like in May.

To conclude, the rally that we are seeing is indeed powerful so far, and I obviously did not expect it, however, we will likely see at least one strong leg down in this bear market.
(except if the SEC says straight "YES" on the 10th, which would be very surprising from them)

Take care everyone, and be careful of fomo.

Comments

Thank you :) ... really appreciate your analysis. They are always on point
+5 Reply
Wondering where Bitcoin is heading? Perhaps "Third Time Lucky" has the answer...
+3 Reply
Very interesting. Thank you for sharing.
Actually I arrive to the same conclusion using different methods.
BTC used to face a 80% correction when it outperforms compared to the log trend => target 4000$.
If BTC breaks the 6000$ support level the next one is at 4000$.
Pop corn time now...
+3 Reply
@tx512, The question is if it breaks tonight (UTC timezone).. another bearflag forming on the 30 min candles.. or am I looking wrong?
Reply
tx512 arrie1992
@arrie1992, 30' is a very short timeframe, I would not rely on that. BTC is still largely overbought when looking at RSI from the 45min to 4h timeframe.

I guess we'll have some consolidation before breaking the current level support that is still present at 6,100$ and 6,000$.

No 4,000$ before days I am sure, before weeks I am quite confident.
+2 Reply
@tx512, Thans for your reply! When im looking at the 4H timeframe the RSI is pretty low (20), so oversold.. You are saying its still overbought. What indicators are you using? Sorry for the questions.. trying to learn something here :)
Reply
tx512 arrie1992
@arrie1992, yes RSI <20 means it is overbought but keep in mind that RSI is less reliable during and right after a rally or crash.
Reply
tx512 tx512
@tx512, Sincerely sorry <20 is oversold (not overbought) >70 is overbought. My bad.
Reply
tx512 tx512
@tx512, Oversold not overbought. sorry for the confusion
Reply
Thank you :)
+3 Reply
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