blacksun
Short

The crash is coming...

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Timing is the hardest part, but one thing is almost sure, the crypto market is going to crash.

As I already mentioned in my previous forecasts, my method is:
1. extract data from the web that tell what is the general trend and how strong is this trend.
2. fit this trend into the chart with a little bit of TA and volume analysis.
3. use the volume profile tool to find the levels we will reach.

Have a look at my two previous forecasts (link below):
March-April, I called the bull trap to come.
May-June, I called the strong downtrend after the bull trap.
Now, I call the beginning of the crash.

I make 1-1 tutorials to explain my method, and give my fundamental indicators.
Contact me on Skype: fx.hardy or Discord: purplefx

The most important point is to think outside of the box, meaning, outside of the chart, using fundamental data and volume .
Several "Top Traders" on Tview post s*** forecasts because they almost only use TA.
They have no clue where the price is going, so they don't take any risk and they show you "all the possibilities", what a joke :---))

Let's hope that it plays out as expected!
Cheers everyone!
Jul 11
Trade active: Hi everyone, I just give a little update since my timing of the crash was obviously wrong.

On the technical point of view, it does look like we could be bottoming and starting a new bull run like the one of April. And that's why many people have hope and there is some support.

But the fundamentals are simply not here. The obvious ones being:
- There is too much pressure on this ecosystem at the moment.
- The volume on the blockchain AND the volume on the exchanges continues to go down. We are in a clean bear market.
And you know what, maybe the best argument for a crash to come soon, is all these people waiting for a new bull run, great time to create panic sell.

So, if we see 7-8K again, it's no big deal, just greater opportunity to short.
Jul 25
Comment: A last update before my August forecast.

The way I see it, is that it will form some sort of double top between 9k and 10k.

Then around the 10th, the SEC will likely delay their verdict, or just say NO, people will be disappointed, and a rather strong leg down will start like in May.

To conclude, the rally that we are seeing is indeed powerful so far, and I obviously did not expect it, however, we will likely see at least one strong leg down in this bear market.
(except if the SEC says straight "YES" on the 10th, which would be very surprising from them)

Take care everyone, and be careful of fomo.
@blacksun

Check your comment again on my trade idea from June (we are going up as my indicators suggest, you said the indicators were useless. They can be good tool, check them out!):

+1 Reply
blacksun alanmasters
@alanmasters, Good call, and yes technical indicators are not useless, I may be a little provocative. I think they are however very overused, notably by unsuccessful traders.

The BTC bull run right now is to my opinion a bull trap preceding the ETFs acceptance/refusal, that I indeed did not see coming.
Reply
Thank you for sharing and continuing to update. Could you elaborate on the pressure of the ecosystem?
Reply
blacksun entrepreneric
@entrepreneric, Sure.

Major governments regulating the space. Retail investors don't really mind or understand these, but large investor (the ones you need to actually pump the market) are patient, and know markets much better (many are used to multi-years bear market), they are not in a hurry to throw their millions. For the moment retail is just craving for a bull run like drug addict, what do you think will happen?
When retail will be depressed, btc at 3-4k for several months, and regulations clearer, they will start to put money in.
This is my personal view, you're welcome to disagree.

Another point.
Zero Dapp are currently used by millions of people, zero. The biggest Dapp in volume as of today is IDEX, which is a decentralized exchange used for buying and selling ... Dapps ... yes, exchanging Dapps which have no business yet. So, whatever is the future of crypto, at the moment, the ecosystem is at the image of IDEX, like a snake feeding on its own tail.
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You're right, timing is the hardest thing!
I have the same analysis for ETH:
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Totally agree with you
4000 for sure
3000 maybe
+2 Reply
Yep, Whales will bring BTC price down to 3K or 4 K just for those people waiting on the side lines with bags of cash. Why would they allow regular people to buy at such levels, assuming there is a lot of price manipulation occurring? Logical move would be accumulation and leg up afterwords. Thanks
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Why so high?
+1 Reply
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