Hi,
This sideways movement has been pretty boring. Over the two weeks period, the Bitcoin price has moved within a tight range. Everyone has drawn their triangles and waiting for a big move.
As you know, the triangle has a breakout opportunities to either direction, which should get confirmed after the higher timeframe candle close (4H, Daily) above or below the chart pattern BUT as said, e v e r y o n e, has noticed it. So, it could be a Perfect time to catch some breakout traders and it should be a Perfect time to make fakeouts. I'm not surprised at all if it occurs in both sides within a short time - watch out for that, risky times for traders who trade only BTC.
Recently I have been pretty quiet. Firstly, because the price has been moving sideways, which leads to the second point, there haven't been any high probability trading setups.
During the last week, I almost started to call out a "short" because there was a ridiculously high amount of "to-the-moon" ideas. Basically, without any analysis - bet against the crowd - and you would be in profits right now.
In general, the price has moved sideways but still, over the weeks, the price has made some tiny bounces and it has moved in the tiny waves. Those smalle bounces and some historical levels allowed identify a support area which can produce a short-term reversal.
As said in my previous ideas. "If the price falls lower than the 10k then the bigger pressure should come from sellers." We have seen a Daily candle close below the 10k but the last Weekly candle closed above of it. So, a bit mixed but still, the sellers have started to show themselves. If it's true then the true selling setup starts to unfold within a week but we might see some bounces here and there. At the moment, I would like to catch one of them - buy setup around the ~$9,300.
~$9,300 has worked several times as a support level. Obviously, it doesn't mean that that it does work again but luckily there are some short-term criteria which give us some signals that the current downwards wave since 6th of September may produce a bounce.
To be said, the time window is pretty tight. The bounce has to occur before 27. September, criteria:
1. The Orange support line has worked multiple times as a support level and one time it has been short-term resistance on mid of June.
2. The blue trendline has worked several times as a support level.
3. Channel projection runs through the marked green area.
4. AB=CD, D matching with our previously mentioned orange support line.
5. Black dotted minor trendline, and the "magical" third touch.
...and actually, this is it. Maybe, who has looked this can find some confident from here but in general, it should be and it could be the last bounce before the big drop.
If it doesn't reach to the marked green area then do not worry. Especially, there come better opportunities than this and if it makes a breakout upwards then we might get a pretty powerful setup IF it stays there. "There" means - above the $10500, above the triangle upper trendline, above the EMA100 and 200 (on the 4H chart).
If it makes a breakout upwards, then I will wait for technically great areas to jump into the market because as said, I'm a bit worried about fakeouts. It needs to be technically a perfect setup, otherways you will find your name from the FOMO list who got cracked.
Stay focused! Be patient!
Regards,
Vaido
This sideways movement has been pretty boring. Over the two weeks period, the Bitcoin price has moved within a tight range. Everyone has drawn their triangles and waiting for a big move.
As you know, the triangle has a breakout opportunities to either direction, which should get confirmed after the higher timeframe candle close (4H, Daily) above or below the chart pattern BUT as said, e v e r y o n e, has noticed it. So, it could be a Perfect time to catch some breakout traders and it should be a Perfect time to make fakeouts. I'm not surprised at all if it occurs in both sides within a short time - watch out for that, risky times for traders who trade only BTC.
Recently I have been pretty quiet. Firstly, because the price has been moving sideways, which leads to the second point, there haven't been any high probability trading setups.
During the last week, I almost started to call out a "short" because there was a ridiculously high amount of "to-the-moon" ideas. Basically, without any analysis - bet against the crowd - and you would be in profits right now.
In general, the price has moved sideways but still, over the weeks, the price has made some tiny bounces and it has moved in the tiny waves. Those smalle bounces and some historical levels allowed identify a support area which can produce a short-term reversal.
As said in my previous ideas. "If the price falls lower than the 10k then the bigger pressure should come from sellers." We have seen a Daily candle close below the 10k but the last Weekly candle closed above of it. So, a bit mixed but still, the sellers have started to show themselves. If it's true then the true selling setup starts to unfold within a week but we might see some bounces here and there. At the moment, I would like to catch one of them - buy setup around the ~$9,300.
~$9,300 has worked several times as a support level. Obviously, it doesn't mean that that it does work again but luckily there are some short-term criteria which give us some signals that the current downwards wave since 6th of September may produce a bounce.
To be said, the time window is pretty tight. The bounce has to occur before 27. September, criteria:
1. The Orange support line has worked multiple times as a support level and one time it has been short-term resistance on mid of June.
2. The blue trendline has worked several times as a support level.
3. Channel projection runs through the marked green area.
4. AB=CD, D matching with our previously mentioned orange support line.
5. Black dotted minor trendline, and the "magical" third touch.
...and actually, this is it. Maybe, who has looked this can find some confident from here but in general, it should be and it could be the last bounce before the big drop.
If it doesn't reach to the marked green area then do not worry. Especially, there come better opportunities than this and if it makes a breakout upwards then we might get a pretty powerful setup IF it stays there. "There" means - above the $10500, above the triangle upper trendline, above the EMA100 and 200 (on the 4H chart).
If it makes a breakout upwards, then I will wait for technically great areas to jump into the market because as said, I'm a bit worried about fakeouts. It needs to be technically a perfect setup, otherways you will find your name from the FOMO list who got cracked.
Stay focused! Be patient!
Regards,
Vaido
Comment:
BTC - new analysis:
Regards!
Regards!
...and here is, several times mentioned, sellin pressure which got confirmed after the 21. September candle close below 10k:
Soon, I will make an update about certain levels to keep an eye but I'm glad that my overall bias got confirmed after the Daily candle close below 10k.
September 16: "the bigger pressure should be downwards. In my opinion, the triangle should start to work already if the price starts to fall lower than 10k. I just cannot see that the price manage to climb higher after it has fallen again below the psychological number 10k. Actually, the triangle starts to play after the breakout is confirmed but my gut feeling says that it doesn't climb higher after another fall below the 10k."
The Train of Express has arrived to the station:
Regards!