Good morning, traders. It's finally Friday and the market is setting up for what could potentially be a wild weekend/start of the new week. Daily RSI is still below 18 and 4H RSI is just now knocking on the exit door of oversold. MACD on the 4H is nearing a bullish cross and the 15 minute and 4H OBV signals accumulation in the local TR. The local resistance appears to be around $5600, but we can see price continuing to consolidate toward it.
The 15 minute TF gives us a look at the local TR and price is moving as expected within it. We can see that it printed its second LPS early this morning at the equilibrium of that TR while bouncing off the pivot and price has been consolidating along the PS level as we should expect. In doing this, price is printing what may turn out to be a pennant. If so, then the next move should be up in the form of an SOS targeting the R1 at around $5750/60, based on the width of that pennant. This is also the resistance area formed by the June low. Price is expected to consolidate around $5600 afterward to print the BUEC/LPS. Then we are expecting a move up to just above the R2 pivot at around $5960/80 for another SOS, and this is based on the height of the flagpole leading up to the pennant. You will also find that $5960 is the 4H S3 pivot.
This is generally how we would normally expect this TR to play out. However, as mentioned above, RSI is ridiculously low and there are a barrel of shorts just waiting to get liquidated/forced to cover a few hundred dollars above the current price. As such, we could see a significant move up before any kind of pause. As I spoke of in yesterday's live stream, I wouldn't be surprised in this latter case to see price breach the 1D descending red resistance line before retracing to test it as support and then move up higher. We will take a look at that again during this morning's live stream.
At this point, price has hit my first target area between $5250 and $5460. We may see a bit more downside, however, which would tap liquidity sitting just under $5000. If price happens to make it that far down, my expectation at this time is to see a good-sized candle as price rebounds out of that liquidity. The buildup of shorts on the shakeout should help fuel upward momentum. I expect to see a Test around the bottom of the 2018 accumulation TR ($5900 area) before continuing higher once buying picks up, but depending on just how much supply has been removed from the market, price may overshoot that level.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
The 15 minute TF gives us a look at the local TR and price is moving as expected within it. We can see that it printed its second LPS early this morning at the equilibrium of that TR while bouncing off the pivot and price has been consolidating along the PS level as we should expect. In doing this, price is printing what may turn out to be a pennant. If so, then the next move should be up in the form of an SOS targeting the R1 at around $5750/60, based on the width of that pennant. This is also the resistance area formed by the June low. Price is expected to consolidate around $5600 afterward to print the BUEC/LPS. Then we are expecting a move up to just above the R2 pivot at around $5960/80 for another SOS, and this is based on the height of the flagpole leading up to the pennant. You will also find that $5960 is the 4H S3 pivot.
This is generally how we would normally expect this TR to play out. However, as mentioned above, RSI is ridiculously low and there are a barrel of shorts just waiting to get liquidated/forced to cover a few hundred dollars above the current price. As such, we could see a significant move up before any kind of pause. As I spoke of in yesterday's live stream, I wouldn't be surprised in this latter case to see price breach the 1D descending red resistance line before retracing to test it as support and then move up higher. We will take a look at that again during this morning's live stream.
At this point, price has hit my first target area between $5250 and $5460. We may see a bit more downside, however, which would tap liquidity sitting just under $5000. If price happens to make it that far down, my expectation at this time is to see a good-sized candle as price rebounds out of that liquidity. The buildup of shorts on the shakeout should help fuel upward momentum. I expect to see a Test around the bottom of the 2018 accumulation TR ($5900 area) before continuing higher once buying picks up, but depending on just how much supply has been removed from the market, price may overshoot that level.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.