BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
As you can see currently we have held our ascending channel again with another higher low. With the main channel its in (bold white lines) being as small as it is, its giving bitcoin the ability to fully cool off all indicators and oscillators while moving price action upwards still giving a bullish divergence .
As you can see, there another long term trend line i have that we have been finding bottom with too that line stems back from the first candle of the last market cycle that took us from about $153 up to $19,750. Which if you ask me, holding a 7 year old trend line that primarly has been tested a support and also starting the last market cycle bull run. That's a confirmation of a strong bitcoin bull.

Because i have been hearing more talk about this recently...
For all those that think Bitcoin is going to drop down to $28k or even lower than that...

1. HYPOTHETICALLY SPEAKING, to complete a bear flag here (despite all the bullish indications i am about to give) an extrapolated move measured from the $69.9k top down to the wick low of $32.8k , this equates to a move of -51.50%. Which when extrapolated to the recent high of $45k and extended downward would leave us at $23.5k. But for this type of move downward to occur we would be looking at a black swan event that would be like Bitcoin mining being banned in the EU and in the US which would leave miners with very little options on where they can go to mine. But this kind of event could substantiate the extrapolated price movement.
Any other catalysts that are plausible to make a "black swan-like" price movement event would be something that is so detrimental to bitcoin that it would be a "Going to $0" catalyst.
So there is a very small chance if we have one of the few possible scenarios that is a catalyst that creates a market move such as it did from April 2021 though July 2021 when China made its multi-step move to Ban Bitcoin in every way it was able.. THAT COULD PUSH PRICES DOWN AT MAX ANOTHRR 51.5%.

We wont be going back to or below $28k because..

2. There is no such technical pattern known as a Triple Bottom, such a pattern would be a double bottom breakout failure into a first re-test. If that re-test is a higher low, you can look for a higher low pattern upward from there. If the re-test in the range of exactly the double bottom (within a few hundered pts) then you would be looking at a very weak bull and has a high probability of dead cat bouncing off then bottom on that third time and then would soon after fail its breakout attempt and it would break.

3. We wont be going back under $28k and that i can say with 99.9% confidence that it wont happen. We would need much more than an exhausted bull to make it happen. We already started creating higher lows starting during out first bottom back in 2021. You can make a trend line actually that would start from the wick low @ $28.5k and then use a second wick low after @ $29.3k. COINCIDENTALLY ENOUGH that same trend line , that would be looking for a 3rd bounce to become a confirmed trend, are one in the same. This would be a third higher low at @ $32.8k wick low and candlebody close @ $35k (.5 fib ext.). A 4TH higher low came with a large single wick down @$34.9k and the candlebody low was @$37.1k.
Even with this most recent drop that ended up breaking above the .55 fib ext level (@$44.6k), we still have bottomed with another higher low. No large wick downs, and candles have been no lower than $37.5k
So, theres a quite obvious trend that is ascending for the lows creating higher lows and the bears have run out of attempts to push us lower.

3a. The third confirmed bottom having that wick down to $32.8k had the significance of that blown up due the bigger significance of the candlebody holding above the .5 fib ext. WHICH IS HUGE! Whenever price action has tested the .618 fib ext and been rejected, it always goes back to test mid-cycle support at the .5 fib ext. If we break below, close below then usually we have out next candle confirm the .5 fib ext as new resistance to continue lower. But when the .5 fib ext holds support especially candlebody support above, and we continue to make higher lows, and higher highs this trend would hold up to the re-test of the .618 fib ext again. Upon this macro retest of the .618 fib ext, 1 of 2 things happen, a. We blast through the .618 resitance (especially if the first macro attempt that we got rejected off DID BREAK this level just did not hold it) or b. We would get rejected a third macro time which would bring an almost certain probability that we would go back to re-test the .382 fib ext level to test support there. Of which this level usually correlates to the .618 fib retracement level.

4. We have multiple major trend lines that have been supporting out higher low moves since our we started, and since our move up from 3800, up $69k, looking at the macro, the overall chart patterns made are symmetrical triangles, ascending triangles, and smaller ascending channels within larger ascending channels.
All of which are within the main overall structure of a bullish ascending traingle that uses the .618 fib ext level as the flat top of resistance. So long as we keep the higher lows on a macro scale.

5. MANY of the Bitcoin On-Chain Data Metrics are showing that bitcoin is primed for a new move to the upside. There are also many chart indicators that have flipped back to bullish at the bottom.

Eventually with all the bullish chart patterns that have been formed, in the middle of forming or are yet to be created, will be coming up to be broken betweem now and the end of 2022
The entire move dowm from $69.9k has been completely manipulated by market makers and FUD from the SEC. But with all the smoke and mirrors, it takes a special eye to see these ikinds of things. But Bitcoin has created one huge bullish divergence into ascending triangle using the .618 fib ext level will be broken and held as support again

All in all,
No, we wont be going back down to $20k or lower,
No we wont be going back down to $28K to bounce a third time.
I see it highly unlikely that we see price action break below $30k.
I see it as unlikely that we are even to break below the .5 fib ext. @ $35k


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