Nico.Muselle

BTCUSD - 2013 vs 2021 - Similar or not?

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hi guys, back with another Bitcoin publication after a couple of months of inactivity. Not because nothing happened, but because my previous analysis is still valid.

Anyway, I thought I'd make a comparison between the 2013 and 2021 bull markets, as it is striking how similar they are.

Let's start with sharing a screenshot of the 2013 bull run, some annotations that are important are made on the chart:


Now let's put the 2021 bull cycle next to it, including annotations :


Now let's see what are the similarities :

  • Halving occured before previous ATH was broken
  • No immediate effect after the halving, only a few weeks after
  • Hardly any hesitation when breaking above previous ATH
  • Rise to the 1.618 reverse fib extension without much troubles
  • Decline to the 1.272 extension and bounce to the upside

There are some differences too :

  • The 2013 bull run took less time
  • We did not break above the 1.618 fib yet in 2021

❓ So why does the bull run take more time?
The most obvious explanation is that the market has matured compared to 2013, we have BTC futures now that can temper price movement and overall I think people are a bit more cautious as well.

❓ What will happen IF we break above the 1.618 fib?
If we break above that fib level, and history repeats itself, then a rally to the 2.272 fib, just like in 2013 would not be out of the ordinary. In case that happens, we'd see a high of around 200k USD.

💡 If and when we'll see that is the question, history doesn't always repeat itself, but if often rhymes. As to the when (in case it does happen of course), my best guess is that it would be in Q2 2022 ..

But ... this is Bitcoin ... so anything can happen. 🤯

👦🏽Now it's your turn. What do you think of this analysis/comparison and what are your predictions?
💌 Share your thoughts in the comments below.

Oh, and if you like this publication ... you know what to do 👍🏽
Thanks for reading! Constructive feedback always welcome!

PS : if you found this interesting, you might want to have a look at my other publications below as well.

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