Bitcoin Bull Flag or Fractal?

A small warning i gave to my members half a day ago:


I have to be honest, I am not liking it since yesterday.

First important fact, the rally was a short squeeze, but could still be bullish or bearish though.

Second, the bull flag is not a real fight (like in dec), but feels to controlled AND the Bart move yesterday, starting to feel like things are being planned again.

Third, I don’t like the volume profile, makes me doubt a bit as well

Fourth, some alts, like xrp, give me a bad feeling. Also trx, so bullish past 2 months, but how come it’s so week the past days.

Everything is still in play, bullish version can still play out. But I really want to see it touch the 3650ish again.

So this is a warning, to be careful with your positions or maybe hedge a bit until things looks clearer. My biggest fear is, they short squeezed it, to be able to distribute at current levels.
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When looking at this picture, the bull flag i compared it to today, even if we go up again, could still be a fake one. First sign we need to see at least, is that red zone break. If that happens, could be this is not a fractal.



I will try to make a new analysis tomorrow. At the moment still no dumping, but it is becoming very important that the 3620 breaks soon, rather within a few hours, but max 24h. What is very worrying AND very different as well compared to the Dec rally, volume is dead again. Based on this, chances for a move down and/or a Bart move are more likely. It happens (almost) always when volume becomes this low.
However, even though alts have weakened today, they are not yet getting dumped. So there is still a decent chance it will all work out. As mentioned before, the 3700ish is an important level between bulls and bears for me. So i rather be careful at this stage, the 3700 has to break coming day or two. If that happens, bullish scenario's are much more likely to happen. Below the 3700, this can all still be a retest inside the bear trend.




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Previous analysis:

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New XRP analysis:

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New Stratis analysis:

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There is movement people, we just rallied from 3580 to 3587 :)

It looks like another channel here on the left. The 3590 is a clear resistance, which needs to break first. VOlume is increasing a bit now as well.

Break of 3620 is a second step, but we need more of course

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Still no real aggressive (big) buying though, volume still a bit too low. Needs more than this, but can still work if the bulls keep their ground above the 3600/590. The bears are keeping control with their sell orders. So simply needs more buyers to eat those sell walls.
The 3620ish still to big for the bulls, seems to be a turning point, so if the bulls can make another attempt, we could see something happen. Below that level, the Bart people (who did that move Sunday) are still in control. I think above 3620 they will start to cover their shorts (which is extra buying power).

Alts look good as well, but we need alts like XRP, TRX and XLM making some moves soon, those are not confirming the sentiment.

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So far so good, no typical dumping so far. Starting to look like normal movement here. Now its up to the bull to hold this small bull flag. If they can do that, we could see something happen the next 24h or so.

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Just came to my memory, i remember it was moving slowly and stable back then as well.

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Updated Bitcoin analysis: