pgarret
Long

Is Bitcoin in a bad mood?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
One possible scenario: We can go lower with the wave A correction so the ABC could change a little. On a 4 hour time frame we have a nice rejection bar which could convince the market that is time for a bounce upwards. The sell off has slowed down and we should expect some buyers stepping in.
Is BTC in a bad mood or what is going on? The confidence in the market is deteriorating again but hey look at the bright side, we can get BTC cheaper again :).
Will update once we get more info.
Mar 09
Comment: Update: So far it looks promising on a 4 hour chart, the bounce is progressing upwards, the volume has increase. One hour remaining from this candle and half volume to fill if possible otherwise I anticipate a sell off will happen.
Mar 10
Comment: Update: Yesterday's candle shows a nice rejection for now, if today's candle closes above the rejection candle we could potentially have a bull run towards the bigger down trend line. From my previous update on a 4 hours time frame we can see the first attempt failed but if we close above yesterdays candle as mentioned more buyers will most probably buy into it in anticipation for higher highs with a stronger consolidation. We will have to wait for more signs.
Mar 10
Comment: Update: Coordinated sale in BTC. The first sale (the blue arrows pointing down) appeared to have started on 03/07 at exactly 16:00 on my chart, then second next day 03/08 at exactly the same hour 16:00 and the third one next day 03/09 exactly the same hour 16:00. There seem to be a second sale (the light green arrows) they start selling on 03/08 and 03/09 at same hour 01:00. The last arrow on a darker blue could be the same seller but he started the sale one hour later today at 17:00.
Now how about that stuff, very interesting seeing this?
Cannot be a coincidence. At first it looks like there were two sellers, who knows? just saying.
Mar 11
Comment: Still going down, we have a bearish flag that could bring us below 8k. Interesting to see if the coordinated sale for other days is going to continue today at 16:00 pm. The 7k green box target I drown is very much in the cards for now.
Mar 11
Comment: Update: It seems after all that the market follows my original idea. The bear flag failed. Crazy times anyway. As mentioned in one of my replies to @philcartier I do not short at this low levels because the price is damn to attractive for buyers to step in and buy. I don't watch BTC charts 24/7, you will get crazy after a while and make stupid mistakes.
Mar 12
Comment:
Mar 13
Comment: Update:
Mar 13
Comment: Update: I see two scenario, either way it seems the price is going to revisit the bear channel support line, if it breaks, we are going to dive deeper and realize the bear flag pattern, otherwise the price will bounce upwards towards the 200MA. The question is does it have the straight to break it? (Personally I'm not very convince) The RSI and DMI give only bear signs for now.
Mar 14
Comment: Update: This market proved to be quite resilient for the past 2 days, decided to go sideways, not good for trading.
The 4 hours time frame below give us some clues of what the market might do:
I can see that is slowly running out of steam, you probably heard the expression "the silence before the storm" which could mean only one thing, the market is about to decide which direction to take. this could take some time but eventually is going to show it's true intentions. The MACD is supporting an up movement
with RSI also on the same side, but the volume is just not there. It could come any time as yesterday, but could be enough for a strong bounce to the upside? Will have to wait and see.


The daily time frame below is telling same story: we closed yesterday with a green doji and so far we have a pin red bar that still means the market hasn't decided where to go. Is probably to early to tell. I think majority of traders are now waiting for clear signs so stay stunned for that.


Overall we don't have yet clear signs for the direction but if the bulls cannot find the straight to take the control, the bears will take advantage, after all we are still on bear territory for some time.
Mar 14
Comment: Update: the bear flag is valid, we are seeing the continuation and the C leg enfolding. We are drooping pretty fast. Would BTC stop around 6.5k? I don't know, personally I think is not but I see on different exchanges that people put buy orders around 6.6k. Will have to way and see if all those orders (if they all get filled) are enough for sellers capitulation and reversal to the upside.
Mar 15
Comment: Update: Bull trap, look at previous three arrows and RSI indicator. The current situation is no different. This is what I see, I expect another sell off to happen today. The buy has slowed down which indicates for now that there is no strength to confirm the reversal despised of nice volume. This is people overreaction to news and high speculation.
Mar 15
Comment:
Mar 16
Comment: Update: In a bear market potential good news is like wining to lottery, or something like that. Could we hope that the forming falling wedge is going to push for a reversal in BTC? I noticed in some exchanges that some big money slowly are buying into this market, maybe in anticipation for the falling wedge. It could be the beginning of a re-bounce in BTC. The possible targets are on the chart, this could happen in the next 2-3 days.
Wait for confirmation with strong volume before deciding to buy.
Mar 17
Comment:
Thanks for the analysis!!!
http://www.businessinsider.de/bitcoin-price-traders-angry-over-mt-gox-trustees-bitcoin-sales-2018-3?r=UK&%3BIR=T
Does Japan 9.00 am your time coincides with one of your hours mentioned above :-)?
Reply
pgarret drgorogbalazs
@drgorogbalazs, Welcome, it doesn't seems to coincide with any of those hours. it could be somehow related but I'm not sure.
Reply
Thanks! Keep it updated
Reply
pgarret ProBitMEX
@ProBitMEX, Welcome, sure do.
Reply
ProBitMEX pgarret
@pgarret, very interesting your last update relative to BTC coordinated sell. Some whales playing for sure. In my prospective I'm hoping BTC will retest 6K with a nice double bottom. I'm shorting since 9000
Reply
pgarret ProBitMEX
@ProBitMEX, It seems that's going to happen :-), will see how soon. Good for you. I'm waiting for 6k to buy more :-) although I have a felling this time is going to be a deeper dive and we could see BTC around 3k based on my TA. Will need to wait for the 6k and see how the situation is unfolding.
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ProBitMEX pgarret
@pgarret, This market is turning crazy af I dont know even what to do.... Goes up and down everytime. It's becoming very dangerous!
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pgarret ProBitMEX
@ProBitMEX, Yes, I hope you liquidated your shorting, that is why I don't short at low levels (below 0.618 Fib). The price is very attractive for buyers to step in any time.
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ProBitMEX pgarret
@pgarret, Yes I did! I will adapt the same strategy lesson learnt!
We are currently seeing a small pull back, do you think it could last? And which level it may reach? Thanks!
Reply
pgarret ProBitMEX
@ProBitMEX, Ok here is what I think and why so far the probability to go lower is higher: we are below 200MA, now that is a big deal, as long as we are hovering below eventually the price is going to go down, that exactly what happen several hours ago when prices hit the 200MA which it seams is a strong resistance and got rejected. Would the price attempt to break it again? sure that is probably the pull back you are talking about, it can even break it but I don't see that happening, we need huge volume and a bullish pattern and what I see is a bearish flag that will bring us to 6.5k eventually.
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