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Long

Market-wide Reversal Beginning Now, BTC going to 100k Next Year

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
It appears that we are beginning to round a corner on many cryptocurrencies which will likely lead to significantly higher prices than what we saw last year.

The news is becoming overwhelmingly positive and the massive expansion by exchanges and brokers into more global and traditional markets will lead to the new money buyers required to end this sell-off and begin a new uptrend. Governments are beginning to clarify their regulations surrounding cryptocurrencies and we will soon start to see ETFs and related products being traded on major traditional exchanges. Now that the SEC has said that Bitcoin             is not a security it has opened the door to an ETF having much greater chance of being accepted, due to the fact that it was rejected last time solely on the fact that it was unregulated. The CBOE             has just recently put in their application for another ETF after the SEC's decision to regulate most cryptocurrencies as non-securities. The China shutdown is also no longer a major factor due to their massive decrease of CNY             volume , and South Korea seems to be leaning towards loosening up their restrictions towards cryptocurrencies in their country. Even Facebook             has started to allow cryptocurrencies ads again which will help bring more new money into the space.

Apart from the news starting to improve, we are also seeing major momentum divergences and elliott wave patterns forming that indicate that we are at a significant bottom now. There's also harmonic patterns forming on multiple other cryptocurrencies, such as LTC, that are very large and will likely provide a large amount of support at these prices. There's also bullish divergent bars on multiple cryptos on the weekly charts and below, which again increases the probability of a reversal here.

With all of these factors occurring simultaneously, it's very likely for some sort of bullish retracement or a complete reversal here. Most likely, due to the potential EW pattern, we will see a complete reversal here and it will send us to new all time highs over the next year, with Bitcoin             going as high as 100k sometime next year. Bitcoin             will also probably be one of the less bullish currencies because of competition and issues with scalability. We will also probably see a continuation of BTC             losing its market cap dominance to other top cryptocurrencies until it loses its seat as the biggest cryptocurrency.
Comment: A short-term dip seems probable and will be a good place to load up on coins, as long as support around 5700 continues to hold. A break blow that support could mean we become intermediate bearish (but still long-term bullish).
Comment:

In the short-term this could get another wave or two down before we break up. However, if we make a new high from here we could continue the uptrend without another leg down. Either way, the complex corrective count here is indicating some kind of diametric or symmetrical pattern coming to a completion very soon, which means we should see a substantial reversal sometime this month.
Comment:

Short-term dip happening like forecasted. There should have been far more momentum after breaking down from the large triangle but the bears have, so far, failed to wake up and bring us to significantly lower prices. Unless bears can break through the floor here and gain a lot of momentum, this is going to bounce very hard soon. Based on time considerations I'd say no later then late next week we should see some major bullish price action if bears can not bring us significantly lower.

The price action should be extremely powerful if it is to truly end this downtrend, much faster and larger than wave-(i), probably more powerful than all of wave-. At a minimum it should break the - trendline faster than all of wave- took to form to confirm the bullish contracting triangle, and then from there it shouldn't take very long to start making new ATHs.

A reversal could happen at any moment so be prepared, though time-considerations favor it reversing around the week of the 15th.
Comment: (Can't use brackets in Tradingview comments apparently, here's a correction of the above)
The price action should be extremely powerful if it is to truly end this downtrend, much faster and larger than wave-(i), probably more powerful than all of wave-d. At a minimum it should break the b-d trendline faster than all of wave- took to form to confirm the bullish contracting triangle, and then from there it shouldn't take very long to start making new ATHs.
Comment: I am moving this idea to status of "ALTERNATE COUNT"

My new PRIMARY COUNT is this new diametric:
Comment:
Comment: I think it's best to switch back to this idea as the primary count for now, until we have more information, however, I think we should make one slight change to the count (though the implications still remain the same, and we should go to directly to ATH here if this idea is correct)

Comment:

Bulls seem to be running out of energy. We could see another leg down very soon for the next month. Timing for wave-f to end here is good. Looks like wave-f is also an expanding triangle. The 3D momentum is also indicating that we need another leg down.

The angle of each decline has been decreasing by a measured amount, so based on the decreasing angle and the expected end time of this wave, the two price targets I come up with are 6200 and 5450. More likely it will stop at 6200 next month, but there's a small chance wave-g is a bit longer and we make a new low and test 5450 around the first week of September.

The only way to be sure wave-g is ending is that we should get an extremely powerful move up, much more powerful than what we've seen over the last month.
Comment: As @renkclub pointed out, there is another ETF that has a deadline for approval by August 23rd. This is the Proshares Bitcoin Futures ETF, and its short counterpart. I think there's a very good chance these ETFs are approved by the SEC, because of the same reasons as I listed above for the Direxion ETF. So it will be a good idea to be prepared on that date for a massive upswing.
Comment:

Wave-g ending on the 23rd would mean that there are 5 time similar waves, and 2 larger waves, which is within the guidelines for a diametric to be completed. Also wave-f+g=e in time on the 23rd. This means that if we get a positive ETF approval on the 23rd, we could be beginning the bull-run a month earlier than I originally forecasted.
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Not sure if this list is legit,
Upcoming Dates for ETF decisions or delays:
1. ProShares ETF - 23rd August 2018
2. Bitwise ETF - 7th September 2018
3. Direxion ETF - 21st September 2018
4. CBOE VanEck / SolidX ETF - 30th September 2018
+1 Reply
Intuit renkcub
@renkcub, Interesting, I hadn't heard of those. The Proshares one definitely has just as good of a chance of passing as the Direxion one. I'll have to look more into my charts and see if it's possible that we could be bouncing in 3 days. I would have to say off-hand that it is, but if I find what I like I'll publish a new chart. Definitely watch that date.
Reply
@Intuit, Thanks for the response. I haven't really digested "which is which" and which are most likely to be approved, and which represent "paper" vs "real" BTC. How would you rank them in terms of those 2 factors?

I have some concerns that paper ETFs. Although, as you have explained, they shouldn't negatively impact the market because there is a long for every short ---- what if "the powers that be" basically were playing both sides of the trade and selling to themselves through a mule account in order to naked short ("break") the market?

Reply
Intuit renkcub
@renkcub, The Proshares one is based on Bitcoin Futures, and so, like the Direxion ETF, has a high chance of being approved. The Bitwise one is an Index fund of the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap, which I really doubt would be approved for multiple reasons, one of which being that the underlying markets are unregulated. The VanEck ETF also has a high chance of approval because it is based on actively managed bitcoin derivatives and not an actual index fund, similar to the Proshares and Direxion ETFs.

As for your fear of "the powers that be" selling to themselves, it makes no real difference if they are selling only to themselves, because then there is a net neutral effect on the market. Naked shorting doesn't technically break a market, it's usually only done when a stock is in short supply and a trader can't borrow any to sell on market. Futures work in a different way though because you're not trading shares, you're trading contracts and there's always a counterparty to that contract. So when you're shorting futures you're just taking the opposite side of a long position, rather than borrowing shares and selling them on market, like with a stock.
+1 Reply
mikenz Intuit
@Intuit, very interesting, thx for this insight.
+1 Reply
Intuit renkcub
@renkcub, Thanks for your comment.
Reply
I really like your work. Thanks!
+1 Reply
Excellent work! Liked and followed.
Reply
Agreed...assuming we do rally to 8k (barring it's just a quick wick and immediate slam down) there is a good chance we will get a bullish engulfing on the monthly chart which would lend credence to a new bull market. Thanks for the update.
+1 Reply
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