Good morning, traders. The Proof of Keys event came and went without any fanfare. There are some conspiracy theories concerning HitBTC and Bitfinex in relation to the event and exchange down time and/or frozen funds, but that's all they are. I am going to keep today's analysis short and sweet while concentrating on the D1 TF since I believe that unless you're scalping for $20-$50 at the most, there's really no strong argument for trading the smaller TFs until what's happening on the D1 plays out.
D1 chart (Bitstamp):
We can see the TR, potential IHS, and symmetrical triangle that are playing out at this time, as well as the volume nodes on the right hand side of the chart. It really does appear to all be coming down to this current consolidation. Price remains above the pivot but a retest of it as suport around $3695 would also simultaneously retest the triangle support, which would be positive. Current price action is at the EQ of the TR and within the HVN, so a move above that would be bullish and I would expect the mid-$5000s target, but a move below would be bearish and I would expect a test of the 78.6 retracement and possible a retest of the 2018 low. Even a test of the 78.6 retracement could be bullish as we would still be in a possible wave 2 of a larger degree. RSI is currently printing a symmetrical triangle and we can watch for a close above resistance or below support to likely tell us which way price is headed. Another thing to watch, if price drops, is the MACD histogram. The previous low was barely below the zero line on December 7th (price low $3210). This means that price would have to drop almost $550 from where it is just to avoid printing bullish divergence. Bullish divergence printing on this TF would indicate a larger trend change to the upside which would likely indicate that we are beginning wave 3 of a larger degree at that point.
Interestingly, the 2018 low price marked the third alternating touch of a potential descending channel that has been in since the February 2018 low. If this is a valid channel, then the expectation should be a move toward the mid-$5000s to provide the fourth alternating touch and confirmation of that channel. This is something I have touched upon in previous live streams and will take a more detailed look at it today as well as shorter TFs.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
D1 chart (Bitstamp):
We can see the TR, potential IHS, and symmetrical triangle that are playing out at this time, as well as the volume nodes on the right hand side of the chart. It really does appear to all be coming down to this current consolidation. Price remains above the pivot but a retest of it as suport around $3695 would also simultaneously retest the triangle support, which would be positive. Current price action is at the EQ of the TR and within the HVN, so a move above that would be bullish and I would expect the mid-$5000s target, but a move below would be bearish and I would expect a test of the 78.6 retracement and possible a retest of the 2018 low. Even a test of the 78.6 retracement could be bullish as we would still be in a possible wave 2 of a larger degree. RSI is currently printing a symmetrical triangle and we can watch for a close above resistance or below support to likely tell us which way price is headed. Another thing to watch, if price drops, is the MACD histogram. The previous low was barely below the zero line on December 7th (price low $3210). This means that price would have to drop almost $550 from where it is just to avoid printing bullish divergence. Bullish divergence printing on this TF would indicate a larger trend change to the upside which would likely indicate that we are beginning wave 3 of a larger degree at that point.
Interestingly, the 2018 low price marked the third alternating touch of a potential descending channel that has been in since the February 2018 low. If this is a valid channel, then the expectation should be a move toward the mid-$5000s to provide the fourth alternating touch and confirmation of that channel. This is something I have touched upon in previous live streams and will take a more detailed look at it today as well as shorter TFs.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.