BITCOIN recorded the 3rd worst month ever! Bull or bear sign?

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has just recorded its third worst monthly closing in history amid high uncertainty not in just the crypto market but in the global economy as well, as the negative macro-economic outlook doesn't show signs of reversal yet.

This chart is (naturally) on the 1M (monthly) time-frame and as you see, the June candle closed on a -37.32% loss, with only February 2014 (-38.87%) and August 2011 (-38.58%) having recorded worse monthly losses. That said, it tied September 2011 for the 3rd spot. With the exception of the first Cycle in 2011, which was the shortest one, such huge red monthly candles tend to form either at the very start of a Bear Cycle or exactly at the end of it where the bottom gets formed.

For the current Bear Cycle (having that peculiar top in April 2021, slightly lower than November 2021), this is the second -30% candle. The first was the May 2021 (-35.38%) slightly after the Cycle Top. With the current candle coming a full year after that, it appears that the chances of that being near the bottom of the Bear Cycle and not the start are far greater. Especially considering the fact that the 1M RSI is trading exactly on the Lower Lows trend-line that has made three contacts prior to that.

But what do you think? Do you feel this -37.32% monthly candle is starting a Cycle far worse than thought or it is close/ at the bottom of it? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!



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