BITCOIN 55k or 40k more likely next?

Now that Bitcoin closed above one key Resistance, the 1D MA200 (yellow trend-line on this chart), as pointed out on a recent analysis, there is a distinct short-term pattern that has emerged.

The initial Channel Up (shown in blue) has turned into a Rising Wedge, which is being supported by the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). What interesting is that yesterday marked the first time that the 4H MA50 traded above the 1D MA200 in almost 3 months (since May 23). The last time such "cross-chart" MA bullish crossing took place was on August 04 when the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) crossed above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line). The result of that Cross was a rally to $48000 and the 1.5 Fibonacci extension (orange fibs).

If the current Cross turns out also to be bullish and the 4H MA50 supports, we can see a similar rally to at least the 2.0 Fib extension ($56000) in the coming days. If the 4H MA50 fails though, a test of the lower MA periods (4H MA200-1D MA50) which as now acting as a Support Zone on the 0.382 Fib retracement level (blue fibs).

It is useful to point out (see chart below) that the last time we had such a sequence of MA events was in April 2020 (when BTC was recovering from the COVID crash). Both crosses where bullish back then with the 4H MA50-1D MA200 Cross providing one last Higher High before Bitcoin entered a 3 month consolidation/ accumulation phase.


Which of the two scenarios do you think is more probable?



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