goldbug1
Long

Bitcoin - Bull Rally or Bull Trap? Looking for the "Sweet Spot"

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
As I mentioned in my recent article on S.C. we were looking for a move and close above 6380 for a bullish swing to 6650-6850 which is playing out nicely. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while so what makes this move different? The structure of the current broader pullback is significantly different then the previous one. Instead of the volatility we saw in the initial pullback, this pullback is forming a broader rounded bottom which is indicative of strong hands accumulation as selling is absorbed more readily by buyers looking to add for the longer term. The recent news concerning coinbases's custodial services, the CBOE' filing with the SEC' with a proposed ETF , and the announcement this morning of blackrock' looking to enter the space, provides further evidence that stronger hands were accumulating on this pullback for the longer term. To think that large investors were not taking this opportunity to add into this correction would be naive to say the least. The evidence is in the charts, we just need to know how to interpret it.

We posted a swing trade to our followers, that was based on the daily volatility swings that came within a $1.50 of filling. Though it never filled, and subsequently hit the target, a trader has to look at this like flopping a gut shot straight in poker, and doing the right thing in throwing their cards away. Even if the turn resulted in making your hand, playing these over and over will result in stack loss, which is exactly what we are concerned with. Coulda woulda, but didn't do it because it was the right way to play. Having the money to play in the next hand is no different then a trader who should be concerned with being able to make the next trade. We want quality high probability trades at market lows, as opposed to more aggressive trades when the momentum is in our favor. This is similar to playing cards for hours and just not getting hands, you look to play only quality cards; however when you are on a run, you can play more loosely (at least I do). Forcing trades is like forcing hands in poker, and will lead to stack deterioration.

However we are still in the game which is key point and have cash on hand to trade. We are currently looking for bearish reversal and subsequent pullback to the "sweet spot" which provides a more conservative trade set up if and when we get a bullish reversal signal. If you are expecting the market to be back to 10k by tomorrow, you might as well take your money and buy a lottery tickets. Markets do not work this way, they rally pullback and rally again. Where this is happening determines the type of swing trade we will take.

The current high today is at the lower end of our initial target level. To be clear the structure can fall apart quickly and we could be looking at testing the previous low. What is more likely in our opinion is we get a pullback between here and 6850 which provides the best opportunity for a swing trade.

IF this is the beginning of a broader bull run there will be plenty of opportunities to trade. Like a good detective that makes assumptions based on the evidence, so must good traders and investors. Many that were still calling for 3500 based on Wave analysis, or the flying flamingo pattern are now scrambling to look to validate their calls. Sure we could see a complete breakdown of the market but the evidence is making the validity of a rally back to 10k more likely at this point. We just need to be patient and wait for the "sweet spot" before we swing the bat, or enter a swing trade.

This does not imply that EW' is not applicable, it is, but for every bearish count there is an opposing bullish count. As an investor you must look at multiple variables and examine the evidence before making a play.

Comments

Well the rocket just launched @goldbug1
The inverse h&s is officially active.
I want to say it that our sweet spot might never come now which is ok as we had money already in BTC so we didn't miss the gains.
Only thing is we missed one trade opportunity and we will get more.
Let's see if it reaches to 7700-7800 which is where i am expecting selling to happen to have a correction till 7k where resistance becomes support and it rallys again.
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Coinbase greenlit for trading coins classed as securities

Jul. 17, 2018 11:01
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oooooh, it feels good to be positioned when those rockets go off. Nothing better than just sitting back and chilling, knowing you've already done the hard work!

Beautiful how it pierced your $7457 level @goldbug1. So the start of something meaningful, or just another correction before more downside? Bears must be worried...
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who ever that is waiting to 'swing the bat' will most likely end up in 'running after the ball' . when the rocket has been ignited only the smoke will be left to collect. another side to that story could be that, it could also be to late to sell as the rocket could get malfunction and crash land to lower grounds! warning not a financial ADVICE!
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@xastunts, I keep saying, whoever is waiting to buy Bitcoin at 2-3k is instead of buying at 5,8k is going to fomo back in at 10k. The greedy always lose twice.
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Brilliant analysis, many thanks.
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Can you please tell me where is this „sweet spot?“
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Hi hope you can update your analysis with the swing you told about. Thanks for that.
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Enjoy my chart:
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Docop1 xuanhaimmoer
@xuanhaimmoer, not at all. why you put the grap going up.. it can go to 100us then 20us.. it's just pure wind.
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